Page 113 - RusRPTSept23

OPEC has raised the forecast for Russia's oil and gas condensate production by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.38mn barrels per day in 2023, which means a decrease by 650,000 barrels per day, the organization said in a report on August 10. Non-OPEC oil production may rise by 1.5mn barrels per day to 67.3mn barrels per day in 2023, the organization said. OPEC still expects global oil demand to increase by 2.4mn barrels per day to 102mn barrels per day in 2023. Russia's oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 9.5mn barrels per day in June, as follows from the report.
Russia plans to keep oil and gas industry output $5.2bn by 2035 says the government on August 23. It is planned that by 2035 the share of domestic oil and gas equipment in the country will be 92%
● Prices
Russia’s crude breached the price cap set by the Group of Seven nations
on August 11, while revenue from oil exports soared to an eight-month high, according to the International Energy Agency. The price of the country’s seaborne crude shipments last month jumped to $64.41 a barrel on a weighted average, “smashing” the $60 price limit set last year by the G-7, the IEA said in latest monthly report.
Discounts on Russian oil for Indian refiners has shrunk to $4 per barrel from peaks of $25-30, with sellers going dark on shipping rates to cover the gap with benchmark Brent crude and skirt western price cap. Russian crude now accounts for about 40% of India’s total oil imports, up from less than 2% in before the Ukraine conflict. Indian refiners began lapping up Russian crude as sellers began offering hefty discounts. Indian refiners buy Russian oil on delivered basis not FOB, wherein the seller arranges shipping and insurance, which reduces the form price and keeps it below a price cap of $60 for seaborne Russian energy exports.
The NBU predicts a slight increase in oil prices in the second half of the year, against the background of the global economy's upturn, particularly in China. In the rest of the year, prices will be under downward pressure due to the active production increase in the US and certain Latin America and Africa countries, fed by moderate demand growth. In addition, the export of cheap Russian oil will push prices down. Thus, the average price of Brent oil will fall by 17.8% to $82 in 2023, 1.6% to $80.7 in 2024, and 13.9% to $69.5 in 2025. The National Bank also thinks that prices for natural gas on the European market will decrease due to the active accumulation of reserves in the current year, increased production of liquefied natural gas in the US and other countries, and the supply of cheaper Russian gas to China. According to the forecast, prices will fall by 56.9% to $584.4 per thousand cubic metres this year, 8.9% to $532.3 in 2024, and 18.9% to $431.8 in 2025.
Brent crude futures are hovering just below the six-month high near $88 a barrel reached in mid-August, Bloomberg reports. Leading forecasters from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to Standard Chartered Plc predict a further surge in the months ahead to $90 a barrel and beyond.
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com