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preparing to use the Turkish Stream for this. According to Energy Intelligence, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe continued their recent upward trend in the first half of August. And average daily flows reached the highest level since August 2022. Cumulative flows through the two available gas pipeline routes from Russia to Europe (without Turkey) in the first half of August increased by 6% compared to the first half of July - up to 1.36bn cubic metres. At the same time, Hungary seeks to diversify the supplies that come to the country in transit through Ukraine using the Turkish Stream, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Peter Sijarto. "It is crucial to have the Turkish Stream gas pipeline because it has a throughput capacity of 8.5bn cubic metres towards Hungary, and it can completely take the entire volume of gas coming from Russia under a long-term contract," Szijarto said. Hungary receives gas from Russia under a 15-year contract signed in 2021.
Revenues of the Russian gas sector may drop by more than twofold to $71bn and gas exports may lose about a quarter down to 126bn cubic metres, Yakov & Partners consultancy said in its research seen by TASS.
Russia can return to gas production and export growth as early as in 2025, experts say.
According to the forecast, gas production in Russia can decline by 5% year on year or by 30bn cubic metres against the last-year end. Gas exports may plummet by 24%, including the decline in pipeline exports by a third to 80bn cubic metres. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies overseas may tick up by 2% to 46bn cubic metres. "European countries have already lowered imports of Russian gas to the minimum and, according to our estimates, the recovery of earlier volumes of exports to this region is unlikely," experts noted.
At the same time, Russia may ramp up gas production to 695bn cubic metres since 2025 and surpass the level of 2021 and reach 799bn cubic metres by 2030. Gas exports may total 151bn cubic metres in 2025 and 211bn cubic metres by 2030. Implementation of all planned pipeline projects will not make it possible to level up the drop in deliveries to Europe, while production may grow on account of new export projects, including LNG, ammonia and urea production and higher domestic consumption of natural gas, experts said. "In case such approaches are implemented successfully, gas production in Russia will start growing since 2025 and export 'shortfalls' will be completely compensated by 2030," the research indicates.
Gas revenues may actually reach the level in 2021 and amount to $97bn on condition of prices stabilization and implementation of planned export projects. The share of gas exports as part of overall revenues will decline to 50-60% against 74% in 2021, the research reads.
Ammonia production is a promising method of gas monetization, analysts said. "Friendly countries of Asia, Latin American and Africa support high demand for
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