Page 23 - RusRPTSept23

petroleum products in 1H23 remained at the same level as a year earlier. Nearly 60% of Russia’s total oil exports (crude oil and refined petroleum products) now go to China and India.
The volume of Russian oil exports has been declining in recent months and has been accompanied by a rise in the export price of Urals crude. The IEA estimates that in July Russia produced slightly less oil than was allowed under its OPEC+ agreement quota. Russia has also said it will reduce oil exports during August and September. The IEA estimates that the average price of Urals crude rose above the 60-dollar mark in July and exceeded 70 dollars a barrel in the first days of August. Prices of all oil grades have risen in recent weeks. The price difference between Urals and other oil grades has also narrowed.
Under the price ceiling mechanism imposed on Russian oil by G7 countries and the EU, corporations headquartered in these countries are not allowed to provide services like shipping or insurance related to sea cargoes of Russian oil if the contracted price of the oil exceeds 60 dollars a barrel. According to the IEA, in recent months about 70% of Russian crude oil shipments have involved transport or insurance provided by companies based in G7 countries.
Russian imports have recovered gradually since the sharp decline of spring 2022. Preliminary CBR figures show that in recent months the value of goods imports (seasonally adjusted) has stabilised at roughly the same level as the 2021 average, but was still slightly lower than in the months leading up to the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IMF’s export figures, which cover nearly all countries, allow for mirror calculation of Russian imports. While the numbers of countries exporting to Russia generally show the same trends as noted by the CBR import figures, the mirror export figures suggest a slightly slower recovery in Russian imports.
Russian Customs has ceased to regularly publish foreign trade figures, so up-to-date official statistical breakdowns of Russian imports by country of origin and product category are unavailable. Mirror statistics of Russia’s trading partners can also be used to evaluate shifts in Russia’s trade structure.
Based on the estimates of about 80 countries’ goods exports to Russia, the value of exports was down in January-April by about 6% from the corresponding time period in 2021. Imports of technology products have recovered more slowly than imports generally. Imports of electrical, optical and similar equipment were still down by about 15% in January-April from the same period in 2021. The value of machinery imports was also down by nearly 10%. In contrast, car imports were only down by 3% and imports of other goods were at about at the same level as in January-April 2021. The trend in the volume of imports is likely weaker than the import value trend as prices of many imported goods and shipping costs have risen.
Imports of technology products have recovered more slowly due mainly to Western sanctions. While export restrictions focus on technology products, tech exports to Russia are generally not banned. Moreover, sanctions on exports of passenger cars typically only apply to high-end models.
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com