Page 15 - RusRPTNov22

probably have enough financial capacity to ride out the storm this year, but if nothing changes, the smaller manufacturers will start to go to the wall next year.
"I'm worried we'll have some highly-skilled craftsman shops in the region either go through forced bankruptcy or just hang up their hats," Edwin Pope, S&P Global Mobility principal analyst for materials and lightweighting, told Reuters.
2.4 Russia to expand Turk Stream
Discussions on expanding Turk Stream and creating a gas hub in Turkey
will begin immediately, reports Interfax, quoting Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.
Russian on-shore infrastructure already in place. The predecessor to Turk Stream was South Stream, which was to be a 63bcm/yr pipeline project to take Russian gas to Bulgaria under the Black Sea. It was eventually cancelled after Bulgaria pulled out of the project, but by that time Russia had already expanded its on-shore pipeline systems to deliver that amount of gas to Russia’s Black Sea coast. When the 31.5bcm/yr Turk Stream project replaced South Stream, Gazprom was left with over 30bcm of excess delivery capacity that could be relatively easily leveraged to supply a significant expansion of Turk Stream.
Years required to design, complete Turk Stream-2 and European takeaway capacity. Although much is ready on the Russian side, designing and building a Turk Stream-2 project, as well as expanding offtake capacity to deliver the gas onwards to the Baumgarten gas hub in Austria via Bulgaria and other countries will likely take at least 4-5 years. Even if all goes quickly, such a route can only partly compensate for the over 90bcm fall in European exports it appears Gazprom is suffering, or the 55bcm of capacity of Nord Stream-1 and another 27.5bcm of capacity of Nord Stream-2 that was lost when 3 of 4 lines of those projects were apparently sabotaged in late September.
2.5 Chicken change: Russian poultry industry hit by sanctions
The poultry industry in Russia needs to find alternative sources of feed additives, hatching eggs, equipment, package and labels, as deliveries from Western countries are halted or disrupted. The current crisis is the biggest challenge Russian poultry farmers have faced since Soviet times.
Russia produces 4.2bn hatching eggs, importing roughly 300mn units, estimated Vladimir Fisinin, president of the Russian Poultry Union, adding that claims that Russian poultry farmers are sitting on imported hatching eggs are wrong. Still, in terms of breeding stock, Russian poultry farmers have turned out to be rather vulnerable. Technically, no foreign supplier declared plans to pull out of the Russian market, but logistics need to be redirected to China, India, the UAE and Brazil, Fisinin said, noting that this would take a toll on costs.
15 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com