Page 45 - RusRPTNov22

over the coming months. Thus, the volume of imports should contract this year by 25%, while the volume of exports only falls by 5%.
Russia’s economic distress is not expected to ease next year as its economy contracts by another 4%. Next year’s growth prospects will be considerably degraded when the EU’s oil import bans take effect (the crude oil ban begins in December and the petroleum products ban at the beginning of February 2023). The volume of exports is expected to contract by 10% in 2023. No significant recovery is expected in 2024. War, sanctions and Russia’s political obsession with self-sufficiency imply a significant reduction in Russia’s potential growth rate over the long term.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for contraction of the Russian economy in 2022 to 3.4% from 6%, it said in its October report.
The forecast for 2023 was also upgraded to a 2.3% fall of GDP from a 3.5% contraction.
The fund also expects inflation to amount to 13.8% in 2022 and to fall to 5% in 2023, while unemployment should stand at 4% this year and at 4.3% next year.
The IMF maintained its expectations of the global economic growth at 3.2% in 2022 and at 2.7% in 2023. But the forecast for global inflation in 2022 was upgraded to 8.8% from 8.3% and the inflation forecast for 2023 was raised to 6.5% from 5.7%.
The average annual oil price estimate was cut to $98.2 per barrel in 2022 and to $85.52 per barrel in 2023 from the previous expectations of $103.88 and $91.07, respectively.
The Fund expects war to severely impair Russia’s long-term growth potential, with the Russian economy expected to grow by just 0.7‒0.8 % in 2026‒2027. In the October 2021 WEO, Russia’s long-term growth potential was still estimated at 1.8 % p.a.
45 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com