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members is likely to increase the contributions from each country. The second issue is the size of the European Parliament. With its population, Ukraine could claim 50-60 MEPs. There may be several options: remove Britain's quota, expand the parliament, or reduce the number of MEPs from other countries - which carries risk as being potentially unpopular. However, one of the biggest tasks for officials in Brussels will be reforms to the common agricultural policy if Ukraine becomes a member. A shock to the system is already being felt in Poland and other neighboring countries that have introduced embargoes. The prospect of Ukraine's accession will provoke negotiations and "spur the debate that has been going on for years" on the EU's common agricultural policy.
The G7 does not have a consensus on obligations for Ukraine security guarantees. The WSJ writes that there is no consensus among the G7 countries on how detailed the obligations under security guarantees for Ukraine should be, citing European officials. The G7 has yet to discuss with Ukraine the military needs in the event of a new war. It is also necessary to coordinate bilateral negotiations between Western capitals and ensure that allied defense industries can provide the promised military aid to Ukraine without undermining the needs of Western forces to replenish supplies and maintain their capabilities. It is noted that Western officials recognize that without reliable Ukrainian support packages, Russia will unlikely be deterred from continuing the war. The main question is whether the current Western governments will be able to effectively allocate and protect Ukraine's military spending in the years to come when these officials are no longer in power. In this context, the biggest uncertainty is in Washington. The current administration cannot legally assign financial obligations to Ukraine to the future government, and the presidential election is looming in 2024.
Consultations on the Ukrainian peace formula in Saudi Arabia has yielded their first results. On August 5 in Saudi Arabia, representatives from 40 countries, not including Russia, started two days of consultations on the Ukrainian peace formula. The meeting is part of Ukraine's diplomatic initiative to gain support from its main Western partners and the countries of the Global South that do not want to choose a side. Ukraine and its allies hope the critical principles that are necessary to end the war with Russia will be agreed upon at the meeting. Thus, the advisers of the country leaders agreed that at the center of any peace agreement should be respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty and the supremacy of the UN Charter. It was also decided to form working groups to discuss the 10 points of the peace formula that have been proposed by Ukraine's president. In addition, negotiations are ongoing regarding the timing of the meeting between the heads of state.
Ukraine and the EU have finalized the concept of Kyiv's five-year support plan. According to Minister of Economy Yulia Svyridenko and representatives from the European Commission, the key points of the 2024-2027 plan are macro-financial recovery scenarios, a program of reforms, including policies on public assets and privatization, human capital, business climate, financial markets, public administration reforms, and increasing investment absorption capacity. "According to the EU support program, we will have a program of actions and concrete reforms to strengthen the economy, European integration, digitalization, and regional development," Svyridenko said. European Commission official Marlene Rosemary Madsen said this €50B support program will be a key driver for Ukraine's economic growth for the next four years. She added that the plan cannot cover everything, but the key areas identified so far are targeted for growth.
9 UKRAINE Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com