Page 10 - Turkey Outlook 2025

2.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1-24
Q2
Q3
Q4
2024
GDP Growth (y/y, %)
1.8
11.0
5.6
5.1
5.3
2.4
2.1
-
-
Electricity Consumption (y/y)
0.1
12.4
-1.0
0.2
6.8
6.6
3.0
5.9
5.4
Employed (active, mn)
24.1
27.0
29.3
30.7
30.3
29.5
30.4
-
-
Population (mn)
83.6
84.7
85.3
85.4
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
8,599
9,539
10,655
13,243
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
5,047
7,209
15,007
26,546
8,858
9,926
11,893
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
717
803
906
1,130
287
307
358
-
-
Inflation (y/y, %, eop)
14.6
36.1
64.3
64.8
68.5
71.6
49.4
47.1
-
Lira-loans (%, y/y)
43.3
20.4
80.4
54.5
43.3
33.3
30.1
24.4
-
Policy Rate (%, active, eop)
17.0
14.0
9.0
42.5
50.0
50.0
50.0
50.0
-
CA Balance ($bn, Oct)
-35.5
-14.9
-48.8
-41.0
-9.7
-4.7
9.2
1.9
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-5.0
-1.9
-5.4
-3.6
-3.4
-1.5
2.6
-
-
Budget (TRYbn)
-173
-192
-139
-1,375
-513
-234
-327
-203
-
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-3.4
-2.7
-0.9
-5.2
-5.8
-2.4
-2.7
-
-
USD/TRY (eop)
7.44
13.3
18.7
29.5
32.3
32.6
34.2
35.2
-
It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.
Turkey led the global inflationary period in the post-COVID monetary expansion era. Then it led the stagflation, or "slumpflation", period.
Currently, the Erdogan regime is marketing a “soft landing” story. In 2025, it will be harder to keep the economic troubles under the rug.
2.1 GDP growth
Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.1% year on year in 3Q24, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on November 29.
TUIK also updated its 2Q24 figure to 2.4% y/y from the previously stated 2.5% y/y.
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