Page 29 - Turkey Outlook 2025

8.2 Stocks
Borsa Istanbul remains in a perfect mess. Given that the regime does
not let the lira appreciate, currency gains are also missing.
Local investors, who currently dominate the market, have turned to deposits and money market funds with lira deposit rates and interbank money market rates hovering above the 50% policy rate.
In 2025, Turkish stocks are supposed to come back to the game. The banking stocks, as the first beneficiaries of a rate-cutting cycle, will be watched.
It should be noted that Borsa Istanbul is a highly manipulated market. Foreign investors have yet to show interest in Turkish stocks. Risks should not be overlooked.
Widespread manipulative operations regularly take place. The trading boards are not deep enough and algorithmic trading via well-known foreign brokerage houses rule the market.
Akbank (AKBNK), a unit of Turkish conglomerate Sabanci Holding (SAHOL), Isbank (ISCTR) and Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK), a unit of Turkish conglomerate Koc Holding (KCHOL), are well-managed banks and they are among the components of the BIST-30 index.
Given the situation of the market, even the top BIST-30 index includes many manipulated stocks. If you are not an insider privy to the circles doing the manipulating, BIST-30 trading is similar to swimming in a pool full of sharks.
The Garanti (GARAN) stock is not the old GARAN. Its free-float rate fell to 14% after BBVA (Madrid/BBVA) upped its stake to 86% in 2022.
8.3 Bonds
When Turkey’s rate-cutting cycle begins (currently expected in December 2024 or January 2025), the government’s domestic lira papers will offer attractive returns.
Eurobonds sold by Turkey’s government and big corporates always offer good returns. They currently stand in the 7-9% range, for long-termers.
Turkey generally sells eurobonds in January, aiming to take a piece of the market as new year investment plans are rolled out. Subsequent issues from Ankara usually follow in the early months of the year.
29 Turkey Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com