Page 40 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2023

40 I Special focus I COP28 bne December 2023
“The global average carbon dioxide concentration is now approximately 420 parts per million, which is far above the proposed planetary boundary of 350 parts per million.”
And it is largely the Western world that is to blame. The impacts vary greatly by wealth; in 2019, the top 10% of emitters were responsible for 48% of global emissions, whereas the bottom 50%
negative feedback loops are starting to kick in, otherwise called tipping points. The melting of Russia's perafrost is an obvious example, as the warmer the soil gets, the more primordial methane it releases, accelerating the warming. The melting of the ice caps is another one that is already happening.
Oxford University says these feedback loops are not well understood and is
decline in sulfur dioxide emissions is likely a contributing factor,” Oxford University reports. “Sulfur dioxide forms sulfates in the atmosphere, which are the strongest anthropogenic cooling agent, hiding part of the greenhouse gas warming.”
As bne IntelliNews reported, ironically an effort to clean up ship exhaust fumes has backfired and accelerated the heating of the planet. Sulphur particles emitted from ship fuel have a notable role in cloud formation, and the reduction in pollution post-2020 has led to increased sea temperatures.
In a study published in 2021, the EEI was found to have doubled in the 14 years from 2005 to 2019. The study was by scientists at NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Earth's climate is determined by a delicate balance between how much of the sun's radiation energy is absorbed in the atmosphere, and at the surface, and how much thermal infrared radiation the earth emits to space, says NASA.
A positive energy imbalance – which is what we have – means the earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up.
This is in addition to global climate change – also known as global warming – which is caused by emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs).
EEI is the result of a decline in the cooling effect of human-made aerosols – reducing the sulphur in ship fuel mentioned above.
Ozone hole is back
There is a massive hole in the Ozone again, which is also allowing more of the sun's energy to reach the surface. Ozone absorbs ultraviolet rays, a high energy wavelength of light. A giant hole in the ozone layer has reappeared over the Arctic allowing cosmic rays to zap DNA, genetically modifying to extinction any higher organism living within thousands of square miles of the hole.
“On the basis of year-to-date statistics for 2023, three important greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – are all
at record levels”
were responsible for just 12%, reports Oxford University.
Only 11 developed countries have reduced emissions and none of those are anywhere close to hitting their Paris accord obligations to prevent global temperatures rising more than 1.5C before reaching zero in 2050. At the current rate of reduction, it will take more than 200 years for the developed world to reach carbon-zero, according to a study published in the Lancet.
Oil production is still climbing and marking a record year in the United States. The industry is even poised
to gain from the green crusade as government’s pour billions into new energy subsides, rather than ending them. One study found that emissions would be quickly cut by a third if the trillions of dollars spent on fossil fuel subsidies were ended tomorrow.
Oil company profits in the most recent quarter didn't reach the stratospheric heights that record-high gasoline prices delivered last year, yet they still beat pre-pandemic returns. Exxon reported earnings of $9.1bn, and its refineries churned out the highest volume of fuel for that period since 1999, Politico reported.
Continuing to dither is not an option, as the longer we wait to solve the problem, the bigger the problems become;
www.bne.eu
calling on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to urgently investigate. But the danger of starting a runaway cascade of self-fuelling planetary heating effects is a real danger now.
Earth’s energy imbalance
Most of the attention has been on reducing the Green House Gases (GHGs) as they heat the planet, but there are other sources of global heating too. Ironically, thanks to the efforts to clean up pollution and take harmful gases out of the atmosphere, the planet is now retaining more sunlight than it used to and that is also adding to global warming.
The earth’s energy is out of balance
and the world is starting to cook, says a new report. The authors include James Hansen, who testified to the US Congress on global heating as long ago as 1988.
More energy than ever before is coming into the planet (absorbed sunlight) than is going out (heat radiated to space), said the scientists. The earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) has escalated in the past decade, they said. The imbalance so far in the 2020s is almost double
the rate during the study’s calibration period, from mid-2005 to mid-2015.
“Although fossil fuel-related greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of rising temperatures, a global