Page 46 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2023

46 I Special focus I COP28 bne December 2023
Major metropolises are on the frontline, facing some of the highest risks from coastal flooding. / Dibakar Roy via Unsplash
Cities in the face of
The acceleration of the sea level rise observed in the 20th century may lead to a potential one-metre increase by 2100 if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not curbed sufficiently. This is an irreversible phenomenon that is set to persist for centuries, posing existential threats to coastal cities.
The gradual rise in sea levels is just
part of the picture; it is combined with sudden extreme levels, often induced by tropical cyclones, resulting in land loss, chronic tidal flooding, coastal erosion, salinisation and ecosystem degradation.
As outlined in a paper from the Sea’ties Ocean & Climate Platform, the exposure of coastal communities to such threats is heightened by urban development and other human activities. Extracting resources like sand, groundwater and hydrocarbons contributes to subsidence.
This is an unprecedented phenomenon and no one knows how fast sea levels will rise; it depends on how successful humans are in cutting greenhouse
gas emissions, the speed at which the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets melt and other variations. Despite the uncertainties, it is certain that risks associated with sea level rise will increase, as the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, in line with the Paris Agreement, looks increasingly ambitious.
Short-term solutions
Coastal cities, despite the occasional headline-grabbing climate disaster like Hurricane Katrina or Jakarta's relocation, are for the most part shockingly underprepared.
Sea level rise adaptation only recently became a political priority, and there
is not currently a unified vision for a climate-resilient future for coastal cities at national and international levels.
City authorities often resort to short- term engineering solutions like seawalls that may exacerbate the problem. The lack of financial, human and technical resources, combined with insufficient engagement from regional authorities, hampers effective co-ordination.
the rising tide
Clare Nuttall in Glasgow By 2050 an estimated 1bn
people globally will be living in
coastal areas, which are already threatened by rising tides that put at risk their homes, livelihoods and the cities they call home. As sea levels
rise as a result of melting ice caps and warming oceans, storms, intensified by shifting temperatures, also contribute to increased flooding.
Major metropolises are on the frontline, facing some of the highest risks
from coastal flooding. According to Théophile Bongarts Lebbe, project manager at the Sea'ties initiative for climate change and coastal adaptation, emerging markets cities with tens of millions of inhabitants such as Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka and Jakarta are among the cities with the highest number of people at risk from coastal flooding, while Miami, Guangzhou and New York are the most vulnerable cities in terms of assets exposed.
“Yet, it is not just megalopolises that
are threatened – medium-sized cities worldwide are [also] concerned. In Europe, one third of the population lives less than 50 km from the coast (over
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200mn people), nearly 50mn of whom live in low-lying coastal areas,” Lebbe tells bne IntelliNews.
“Furthermore, it is estimated that around 72,000 people in the EU are exposed to coastal hazards every year. In the Baltic region, coastal cities such as Gdansk and Riga are vulnerable
to coastal erosion (which can be worsened by human activities along the shoreline), coastal floods and the severity and frequency of storms.”
Appeal to COP28 nations
In response to these mounting dangers, the Ocean & Climate Platform (OCP) initiated the Sea’ties project in 2020, dedicated to supporting threatened coastal cities by facilitating the conception and implementation of effective adaptation strategies. In
the run-up to COP28, the platform unveiled a set of comprehensive policy recommendations aimed at assisting coastal cities in adapting to the inevitable rise in sea levels.
Sea level rise is a consequence of the ice sheet and glaciers melting due to human-induced climate change.