Page 43 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

percentage points versus 3.5-4.5 percentage points (if we take into account not only interest but also rental payments).
Problems in the real sector continue to mount up, analysts say. In many industries, the share of problematic companies (unable to service the debt taking into account the rental) exceeds 50% of revenue, says the CMASF. Almost 19% of the real sector of the economy by revenue will be at risk of bankruptcy due to the bigger credit burden resulting from the anticipated rate hike in 2025.
In addition, a high rate deprives businesses of incentives to work. Profitability is higher than risk-free investments in OFZs in only a few industries – oil, gas and ore mineral extraction, transport, printing and chemistry without pharmaceuticals. "As a result, the rate is a powerful de-stimulator of investment, and therefore of the expansion of supply (and therefore of lower inflation) in the future," the CMASF sums up.
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