Page 52 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

home, unable to find jobs in their host countries or simply attracted by plentiful well-paid jobs in Russia.
Layoffs are taking place both in technology companies and in IT departments in companies from other areas. The companies themselves are trying to keep the layoffs a secret or even deny the fact that they are happening, according to IT recruiters interviewed by The Bell.
"You could call it quiet layoffs," says one of them. In fact, they have been going on smoothly throughout 2024, he claims, but have been especially active in recent months. "Nobody is ready to put this out in public," he describes. "They say: 'Well, yes, they fired, well, yes, the entire department, well, yes, the entire project, but these are not layoffs, what are you saying?'"
5.6 Banking sector
Russian banks have been doing well from the war, earning easy profits from investing into the domestic OFZ treasury bills that are paying double-digit yields as the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) seeks ways to fund a mild budget deficit. At the same time, surging real disposable incomes have seen retail deposits rise, creating a cheap source of funding and with interest rates so high, corporate deposits have also surged.
The problems for the banking sector is the government’s decision to end the subsidised mortgage programme, which was a major source of income for the banks. The real estate sector has been rocked by the end of the mortgage programme that will knock on to affect the banking sector’s profitability in 2025.
At the same time while consumer lending has cooled, corporate lending was strong in 2024 but corporate lending started to slow in December and will slow further in 2025 as the economy cools. With constant monetary tightening those companies are increasingly struggling under the rising cost of servicing their debts. Some have predicted a wave of bankruptcies in 2025 that could undermine banks’ credit portfolio. However, CBR Governor Elvia Nabiullina pointed out in December that there have been no bankruptcies and non-performing loans (NPLs) remain at a stable 4%.
The CBR has not issued a banking sector update since October, but over the first half of this year net profits of Russian banks surged by 36% monthly in July to 306bn ($3.3bn), the Central Bank reported.
52 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com