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Opinion
October 19, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
to capture gas flared from the Nassiriya and Al Gharraf oil fields seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iranian imports. However, its impact may not be felt for some time, and similar initiatives in the past have languished.
Violent protests in Basra
Meanwhile, Baghdad’s failure to pay its electricity bills led to Iranian supplies being cut off this summer. That contributed to violent protests
over blackouts, polluted drinking water and perceived corruption in the southern city of Basra, an oil rich Shia area with high levels of poverty. Clashes between security forces and protesters left several dead. The episode, which rattled the government, offered a foretaste of the social tensions that might arise if Iraq is unable to secure an energy imports waiver.
The Baghdad authorities are under pressure from Iran-supporting Shia political blocs, and Tehran itself, not to comply with the US sanctions. The then caretaker premier Haider al-Abadi said in August that Iraq would abide by the measures. But he subsequently rowed back after protests from pro-Iranian quarters in Iraq, saying Baghdad will only adhere to the ban on dollar-denominated transactions.
Representatives of Iraq’s majority Shia community are divided over Iranian influence, and the re- imposition of sanctions may polarise their posi- tions even more. West-leaning Shia politicians value ties with the US, seen as a strategic partner that helped Iraqis overcome Islamic State and as offering continued support for the country. Those close to Iran tend to share its withering view of Washington, while Iraqi nationalists reject US and Iranian influence.
These divisions play out on the Iraqi political stage and are one of several factors – includ- ing tribal and religious affiliations – that fuel the factionalism, which accounts for Shia politicians’ struggle to put together governing coalitions. In the wake of the most recent poll in May, a na- tionalist alliance led by firebrand cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr, Saeroon, won the most votes, followed by a pro-Iranian bloc, Fatih. Abadi, whose Victory Alliance came third, had hoped to form a govern- ment with Saeroon. But the authorities’ limited progress on public services delivery in the south, which the Basra protests highlighted, as well
as their handling of the disturbances, effectively ended his ambitions for a second term. Saeroon chose instead to hold coalition talks with Fatih.
Both factions reportedly agreed to not put forward their own candidate for prime minister. Then, this month, parliament appointed a new president, Barham Salih, who asked Adel Abdul- Mahdi to form the next government. Seen as a technocrat and independent adept at building alliances, Abdul-Mahdi was likely a compromise prime ministerial candidate agreed by Saeroon and Fatih. While the new premier may be a palatable appointment for Washington, a senior administration official reportedly suggested
last month that America might reduce military support and other assistance to Iraq if pro-Iranian politicians are placed in “significant positions of responsibility”. Such appointments now seem quite likely.
American regional interests at stake
The US and Iran worked hard to try to influence the composition of the new government but
have seemingly not got what they wanted. Yet
as Washington this month considers whether to grant Iraq sanctions waivers, it must bear in mind that failure to protect Iraq from collateral damage could threaten America’s regional interests by not only moving Baghdad closer to Tehran but also jeopardising Iraqi stability.
Further economic hardships might spark more disturbances in Basra as well as protests in volatile impoverished Shia districts of Baghdad, which may prove difficult to control. Iraqi nation- alist politicians and their militias might also resist what they would see as increased Iranian interfer- ence in their country. In Basra, at the height of the troubles, Iran’s consulate was torched by protest- ers chanting “Iran out”. While they have yet to