Page 15 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

Ukraine economic outlook
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023F
2024F
Activity
Real GDP (%, Y/Y)
0
-6.6
-9.8
2.4
2.5
3.4
3.2
-4
3.4
-29.1
5.8
5
Nominal GDP (UAHbn)
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,385
2,984
3,561
3,978
4,194
5,460
5,191
6,591
7,716
Nominal GDP ($bn)
180
133
90
93
112
131
155
155
200
161
180
199
Unemployment (%)
7.3
9.3
9.1
9.3
9.5
8.8
8.2
9.5
9.8
28
21
17
Inflation
Headline inflation (%, Y/Y, e.o.p)
0.5
24.9
43.3
12.4
13.7
9.8
4.1
5
10
26.6
6.2
10.1
Headline inflation (%, Y/Y, avg.)
-0.3
12.1
48.7
13.9
14.4
10.9
7.9
2.7
9.4
20.2
13.5
7.9
GDP deflator (%, Y/Y)
4.3
15.9
38.9
17.1
22.1
15.4
8.3
9.8
25.1
34.3
20
11.5
Exchange rates
UAH/USD (e.o.p.)
8.2
15.8
24
27.3
28.1
27.7
23.8
28.3
27.3
36.6
36.7
40.7
UAH/USD (avg.)
8.2
12
21.9
25.6
26.6
27.2
25.8
27
27.3
32.3
36.6
38.7
External balance
Current account balance ($bn)
-16.5
-4.6
5
-1.9
-3.5
-6.4
-4.1
5.3
-3.2
7.9
-7.9
-13.1
Current account balance (% of GDP)
-9.2
-3.5
5.6
-2
-3.1
-4.9
-2.7
3.4
-1.1
4.9
-4.4
-5.2
Trade balance ($bn)
-15.6
-4.6
-2.4
-6.5
-8.7
-11.4
-12.5
-2.4
-2.7
-25.7
-38.4
-36
Trade balance (% of GDP)
-8.7
-3.5
-2.6
-6.9
-7.8
-8.7
-8.1
-1.5
-1.5
-16
-21.3
-18.1
Capital flows (F/A) ($bn)
18.6
-9.1
-4.6
3.1
6
9.3
10.1
-3.3
3.7
-10.9
20.4
14.7
FDI ($bn)
4.1
0.3
-0.4
3.8
3.7
4.5
5.2
0.1
6.9
0.3
3
3
FDI (% of GDP)
2.3
0.2
-0.5
4.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
0.1
3.4
0.2
1.7
1.5
NBU reserves ($bn) Interest rates
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
25.3
29.1
30.9
28.5
42.1
43.7
NBU’s key policy rate (%, e.o.p.)
6.5
14
22
14
14.5
18
13.5
6
9
25
15
13
Fiscal balance
Budget balance (% of GDP)
-4.4
-5
-2.3
-2.9
-1.5
-2.4
-2.1
-5.1
-2.4
(26.9) *
(28.8) *
(20.7) *
Public debt (% of GDP)
39.9
69.4
79
80.9
71.8
60.9
50.6
60.8
49.7
78.5
80.6
89.8
* budget balance before official budgetary grants
Source: Ukrstat, NBU, MoF, ICU.
15 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com