Page 24 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

3.0 External Environment
In 2023 Ukraine increased exports by 112,000 tonnes to almost 100mn tonnes of goods. At the same time, in value terms, the indicator fell by 18.7% to $35.8bn.
Russian attacks on transport infrastructure and the phasing out of the grain deal have hindered export growth. However, as supply disruptions ease and Ukraine expands the use of alternative export routes, exports are projected to gradually expand.
In 2023 Ukraine is facing the largest, historical external trade deficit, which will exceed 21% of GDP. The culprit is a dramatic decline in export of goods as prices for agricultural commodities remain well below last year’s levels and, on top of that, logistics became more complicated due to the suspension of the Black Sea grain corridor in July. In 3Q23, exports of goods were down 25% y/y, largely due to a decline in the value of exported agricultural products and food.
They have made up nearly 60% of total export of goods since the start of the full-scale war.
Imports of goods, on the other hand, are surging and were up 16% y/y in 3Q23. While the import of military equipment is the key driving force (the vast majority of which is not included in official data), the deliveries of consumer goods are also surging.
• 3.1 Trade dynamics
Ukraine recorded a trade deficit of $2.95bn in October of 2023. The Balance of Trade in Ukraine is expected to be about the same by the end of
24 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com