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Eurasia
October 13, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
Can the Iran accord survive Trump’s nuclear no?
bne IntelliNews
Naming the major world leaders not content to carry on with the Iran nuclear deal in its current shape and form is a rather simple task. For the only vocal opponent is Donald Trump, backed by a somewhat obsequious Israeli Prime Minister Ben- jamin Netanyahu. Even the US president’s own secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and Pentagon chief, Jim Mattis, have lately accepted the Irani- ans are complying with the deal and that the wise thing to do for now is to stick with it. But Trump
is Trump and his determination to do something about what he has called “the worst deal ever” and “an embarrassment” to the US will this week see him make a major announcement.
The most probable scenario is that he will refuse to issue the required regular 90-day approval of Tehran’s compliance with the formally titled Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) and will send the issue to Congress, which will be asked to vote on whether Washington should drop out of the deal, perhaps in tandem with pressuring Tehran to renegotiate for a reformulated deal. If Congress then fails to decide what to do within 60 days, the decision would return to Trump.
The deep disappointment that the accord — generally seen as so successful that those who negotiated it on behalf of Iran and six major powers were thought of as genuine contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize — is facing destruction at the hands of Trump or the Republicans in Congress was tangible at the fourth Europe-
Iran forum in Zurich last week, attended by bne IntelliNews. Over the two days of the event, it was no doubt the elephant in the room, and a
Not everybody in Iran would be displeased should the nuclear deal unravel. Plenty of hardliners in the Islamic Republic view the accord as surrendering to Western powers that cannot be trusted.
sizeable one at that. Several Iranian CEOs told this publication that despite their best efforts Europeans had lately grown cooler on financing possible future trade and investment with the Islamic Republic.
All in all then, not encouraging, but wait one mo- ment... what’s this on the horizon? Quite possibly knights in shining armour in the form of the Euro- pean Union and European business riding to the rescue — even by sending delegations to Wash- ington to talk to senators and members of Con- gress — to keep the JCPOA functional whatever course of action ex-reality TV star Trump relates to his audience during his next “episode”.
Speaking at the forum, Helga Schmid, secretary- general of the European External Action Service, reassured business leaders that the EU was committed to the accord, saying that “as Europe- ans we will do everything to make sure it stays”. Speaking to a packed out conference hall, she added: “The nuclear deal is working and deliver- ing, and the world would be less stable without it.”
Schmid left no doubt about the strong feelings in Brussels about retaining the JCPOA, also say- ing that the EU “supports economic cooperation between Iran and Europe – at the political and policy level”.
If the Americans don’t come through to stall or block their own president, all eyes will turn to Europe and its suggestion that it can keep the JCPOA alive with the Iranians, Russians and Chi- nese. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad