Page 51 - RusRPTDec23

According to Varshavskaya’s forecast, in December of this year there will still be a statistical surge in salaries due to annual bonuses, and then the growth rate will slow down.
In the longer term, the structural imbalance of the labour market will force enterprises that are losing the battle for workers to reduce production. This will be a very serious limiting factor for GDP growth. The ACRA rating agency recently published its forecast of economic dynamics based on available capacity and the labour market. The bottom line is that GDP will grow by only 0.5-1.3% in the next three years, because the overheated economy will hit the supply threshold, and the real sources of growth - human capital and labour productivity - will not be involved.
In-demand specialists will do best in the labour market—employers will still have to lure them away with their salaries. Ordinary employees changing jobs should moderate their salary expectations: more and more companies are curtailing the “plus 10% to the market” policy, writes RBC. Those who remain can expect, if not faster, then higher wages, as well as non-material incentives - for example, luxurious corporate events returning to everyday life.
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Data released on December 1 showed that retail sales growth accelerated from 12.2% y/y in September to 12.7% y/y in October (consensus: 11.2%, CE: 12.5%).
In January–October, retail sales rose by 5.5% on the year to 38.271 trillion rubles. In 2022, retail sales decreased by 6.7% to 42.5 trillion rubles.
Rosstat does not report a seasonally-adjusted growth rate but we estimate that sales rose by 0.7% m/m, continuing a trend of strong growth throughout this year.
Consumer spending continues to be supported by solid labour market conditions (the unemployment rate fell to a fresh low of 2.9% in October), high consumer confidence and rapid real disposable income growth.
51 RUSSIA Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com