Page 54 - RusRPTDec23

The structure of imports has also changed, but not so dramatically. Imports to Russia from Europe decreased in the first nine months of 2023 by 8.7% year-on-year, Europe’s share decreased from 35.9% to 27.7%. Asia’s share increased from 55% to 65%. Africa’s share is about 1% and America’s share is still above 5% (5.3% for January-September 2023 vs. 6.9% a year earlier).
At some point mid-way through 2024, it is likely that Russia will have absorbed the economic shock of Western sanctions and replaced the decreases of trade with the EU and United States by an increase in trade with Asia. This means that in many respects, the analytical prowess needed to accurately assess the Russian market requires Asian, and not European experience. The complete Russian economy has turned its trade face to the East.
2023 has seen Asia consolidate its position as Russia’s key foreign trade partner, yet it should be understood that in many cases Asia/Eurasia plays the role of a trans-shipment link for goods coming from the EU or the US to Russia. Much like the reverse where Russian oil refined in India continues to flow to Western markets.
Russia’s foreign trade surplus dropped more than 2.6-fold in January-October 2023 y/y to $104bn, according to preliminary estimates by the Central Bank.
Meanwhile, the surplus of the country’s payment account balance plunged almost 3.8-fold in the same period to $53.8bn.
"The surplus of foreign trade in goods in October 2023 amounted to $14.3bn, decreasing by $1bn compared to September 2023 due to a decrease in exports of goods by $2.8bn and a decrease in imports by $1.8bn," the regulator said in a statement.
The total deficit of primary and secondary income for January-October 2023 decreased by $22.4bn, mainly due to a significant decrease in the volume of dividends the Russian companies accrued in favor of non-residents compared to January-October 2022, the Central Bank indicated.
The regulator also explained that external liabilities decreased by $5bn after their growth in the previous two quarters of this year. The increase in foreign assets is estimated at $5.2bn in October 2023, which is lower than a month earlier, mainly due to an increase in other investments in the form of receivables, including for unfinished foreign trade settlements, the Central Bank noted.
The Russian Federation’s exports have collapsed by almost a third as of November year to date. According to Russian customs data, exports have fallen 29% since the beginning of the year to $316.9bn. At the same time, imports have increased by 18% to $213.3bn.
54 RUSSIA Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com