Page 7 - AsiaElec Week 11

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
planning,” added Attia.
What this means is that government must develop national grids that are renewable, low-cost, digitally managed and eventually demand-following.
African countries will still need to pursue utility-scale generation and grid infrastructure upgrades.
So-called integrated electrification involves artificial intelligence and machine learning to estimate least-cost electrification scenarios, map existing grid infrastructure, estimate electricity demand, willingness to pay and other solutions that will aid central infrastructure planning.
“These integrated electrification planning frameworks are being given much more cre- dence and attention through groups such as the Global Commission to End Energy Poverty,” said Attia.
Put simply, a whole range of improvements is required if Africa is to deal with its widespread problems of poor bill payments, bankrupt sup- ply utilities, high transmission losses, high tariffs and power cuts.
South Africa faces the current problems of a virtually bankrupt utility Eskom threaten- ing to bring down the whole economy if the government and private investors do not prop it up financially. Meanwhile, radical reform is required to improve the state-owned, vertically integrated behemoth.
In Nigeria, the country has suffered from idle gas-fired power plants as reliable gas supplies are not available. Rural and slum urban areas suffer from a lack of power, or use dirty diesel generators.
Decentralised power solutions are uniquely positioned to fundamentally evolve the utility business model, displace hundreds of GW of diesel generation and spell either serious trouble
or complimentary promise for struggling state distribution utilities.
Falling costs
In 2019, a World Bank report found that the mini-grid concept offered one of the most cost-effective methods of providing universal access to power in developing countries in Africa and Asia by 2030.
The bank argued that investment of $220bn from both private and public sources was now needed to finance up to 210,000 new mini-grids worldwide in order to meet this goal. Compared with Wood Mackenzie’s $2.1bn in the previous 10 years, this is a rapid increase.
The bank also identified falling costs as a major driver of new investment.
“The costs of key mini-grid components, such as solar panels, inverters, batteries and smart meters, have decreased by 62%-85% as a result of innovations and economies of scale in utility-scale solar projects, the booming rooftop solar industry and the growing electric vehicle [EV] market,” the report said.
The bank aims to facilitate $220bn of invest- ment from donors, governments and the private sector between 2019 and 2030 and to drive down the cost of solar-hybrid mini-grids by $0.20 per Wh.
With 2020 bringing in a new wave of enthu- siasm for green investment, with investors led by BlackRock finally factoring climate risk into their investment strategies, the growing com- petitiveness of renewables and the technology of smart grid management makes this size of investment at least imaginable, and maybe even possible.
“The last decade saw the birth of a tril- lion-dollar market opportunity but the 2020s will reveal the true pace of change,” said Attia.™
$220bn from both private and public sources is now needed to finance up to 210,000 new mini-grids worldwide
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