Page 106 - RusRPTFeb24

At the same time, Head of the System Operator of the Unified Energy System Fyodor Opadchy told reporters that the growth in energy consumption in Russia since the beginning of the year reached 4.9% against the backdrop of severe cold.
"Growth reached 4.9% <...>. So far, against the backdrop of cold weather, we see such a large increase in the cumulative total to date [from the beginning of the year]," he said.
● Prices & demand
Analysts predict oversaturation of the oil market in 2024 and a drop in oil prices. The increase in oil production in countries that are not part of OPEC+, including the US, may oversaturate global demand, which is growing slowly and will lead to lower prices. Although the OPEC+ oil cartel is cutting its output in response, traders are skeptical that the cuts will be enough to outpace the supply glut. The combination has already led to the first one-year drop in oil prices since 2020, dashing any hopes of a price recovery as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. The Brent crude oil futures curve has been in a bearish contango structure for most of December, with short-dated barrel contracts trading at a discount to later ones. Net long positions held by non-commercial players in major oil contracts are, on average, at their lowest level on record since 2011, Bloomberg data says. According to the International Energy Agency's latest market review, global consumption growth is set to slow as economic activity weakens.
● Transport & exports
Russia exports oil products to the EU through Turkey. Before the full-scale war in Ukraine started, the Turkish Dörtyol oil terminal received Iraqi oil and transferred it to tankers. However, since the first sanctions against Russia began to affect the export of oil and oil products, tankers with Russian cargo began to enter Dörtyol constantly. Subsequently, a significant part of them went on to Europe, even after the EU introduced an embargo, wrote FT.
Turkey has become one of Russia's main buyers of oil and oil products. In some cases, it sold Russian fuel on the domestic market and exported its more expensive diesel fuel. In other cases, as in the story of Dörtyol, oil products went to Europe without any processing.
From January to November 2023, 10.5 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were delivered to the terminal by sea, of which 9.2 million, or almost 90%, came from Russia. For comparison, 583,870 barrels arrived from Russia in 2021 and 3.7 million in 2022.
Russian marine oil exports hit 2 month low after storms, suspected
106 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com