Page 109 - RusRPTFeb24

such actions to be a violation of previously reached agreements. Reuters cited statistics from analytics firm Vortexa that China imported about 1.18 million barrels per day of Iranian oil in December, up from 1.22 million in November and 1.53 million in October.
Russia emerged as the biggest crude supplier to India in 2023 and will stay that way in 2024. Russia accounted for more than one-third of its imports, a trend that is likely to remain intact in early 2024 despite the recent Red Sea attacks escalating fears over diversions and higher shipping costs, analysts and trade sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
They added that a slowdown in Russian flows in recent months -- attributed to factors such as payment hurdles, logistical and shipping delays -- may do little to dent the overall trend, as Indian refiners had got used to many grades of the feedstock from the largest non-OPEC supplier.
According to S&P Global data, Russia contributed over 35% of India's total crude imports in 2023, amounting to 1.7mn b/d. In December, Indian imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.43mn b/d, reflecting a decrease of 150,000 b/d compared with November and a significant drop of 620,000 b/d from the peak in May, which marked India's highest monthly imports from Russia.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, the Red Sea route remains the preferred option for traders supplying Russian crude to Indian refiners. Currently, there have been no observed alterations in the route plans for Russian oil destined for India.
Russia has approximately 112mn barrels of oil on water, with a minimum of 43.7mn barrels destined for India. Notably, 19.2mn barrels are positioned in proximity to the Indian subcontinent, covering the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean East, and Southeast Asia. In the case of any disruptions, refiners or traders have the option to utilize these volumes to sustain refinery operations, according to S&P Global.
Indian refineries, accustomed to acquiring Sokol at a rate of 150,000-160,000 b/d, observed a notable absence of Sokol imports in December 2023. Some ships had to wait for discharge for more than 10 to 15 days.
The recent slowdown can be attributed to a rise in the Middle Eastern flows, weather-related issues at Russian ports, heightened refinery maintenance, and increased scrutiny on ships carrying Russian oil. Despite the current dip, it is anticipated that inflows will likely bounce back in the coming months. This resurgence is expected, as crude runs are projected to increase post-maintenance, especially with refining margins remaining robust and a need to meet seasonal demand growth, analysts said.
109 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com