Page 38 - RusRPTFeb24

Troops Flag,” NYT noted this week that “[n]ow Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country’s east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected.” A new Russian offensive could occur sometime between Jan. 12 and Feb. 2, ISW reported, citing estimates of Russian war watchers. For Ukraine to survive Russian offensives in 2024, it needs to pursue the strategy of active defense, according to Western officials cited by FT. Pursuing this strategy, toward which the Ukrainian government has recently allocated $466 million, could be vital, given the ammunition and personnel shortages the Ukrainian armed forces are suffering from, the former partially blamed on delays in disbursements of military aid by the U.S. and EU.
Ukraine attacks another Russian oil refinery on January 25. An oil refinery in the Russian city of Tuapse, in the Krasnodar territory, was struck by drones launched by the Security Service of Ukraine, sources in the agency claim in media comments. After two powerful explosions, a large-scale fire broke out.
Russian artillery fire now exceeds Ukrainian artillery fire at ratios between five-to-one and ten-to-one, ISW reported this week, citing Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. “Today we had two shells, but some days we don’t have any in these positions,” a commander of a Ukrainian artillery crew told NYT. “I have two tanks, but only five shells,” a deputy Ukrainian battalion commander told this newspaper.
Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, while Ukrainian forces struggle to find adequate personnel reinforcements, according to the Ukrainian MoD’s military intelligence cited by ISW and NYT, respectively. “Three out of 10 soldiers who show up are no better than drunks who fell asleep and woke up in uniform,” a Ukrainian soldier confided to NYT in reference to new recruits that arrive at his brigade. Ukrainian MPs are expecting to receive a revised version of the mobilization bill, which is expected to allow a mobilization of half a million Ukrainians, in the first week of February, according to Ukrainskaya Pravda.
10% of the US’ defence budget allowed Ukraine to destroy 50% of Russian weapons. David Cameron, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the UK, expressed this analysis in Davos and added that the economic potential of Ukraine's partners is 25 times greater than the economy of the aggressor country, noting the necessity of managing these resources properly.
Russia remains the second largest military power globally, trailing only the United States, according to the latest rankings from GlobalFirepower (GFP). The Power Index score of the Russian Armed Forces rose to 0.0702 from 0.0714 a year earlier. China, India and South Korea are are also in the top five global military powers, with Japan ranking seventh, France 11th and Israel, Ukraine and Germany 17th, 18th and 19th, respectively. More than 60 individual criteria were factored into the rankings, including the number of
38 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com