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annexed region was also humiliating from a political perspective. Although such a major decision could not have been made without the president’s approval, Vladimir Putin tries to distance himself from the pullback. In Russia, this was framed as a simple redeployment of troops and announced by defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian armed forces Sergei Surovikin. Continued military setbacks in Ukraine are likely weakening Putin’s standing as a commander-in-chief among Russian political and military elites, although there are still no visible cracks in his regime.
Military successes embolden Kyiv. For Ukraine, the retaking of the western Kherson region is a strategic victory, which makes any renewed Russian advances toward the major Black Sea ports of Mykolaiv, Odesa, and even Kherson very unlikely in the near future. It also highlights the effectiveness of western artillery systems, which have been heavily used in this counteroffensive. These artillery systems could now threaten Russian logistics routes from Crimea into other Russian-held territories of Ukraine.
Inspired by the recent successes, the Ukrainian side will try to maintain the momentum and continue offensive operations in the coming months, provided that extensive military support from its allies is sustained. For now, Kyiv remains silent about the future direction of such efforts.
At the same time, Ukraine will likely have to reinforce its troops around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where Russians are intensifying their offensive. The winter weather could become an important factor depending on the level of preparation for harsh conditions on both sides.
Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield lower Kyiv’s motivation to enter any ceasefire talks unless Russia halts its offensive and pulls out its troops, at least from the territories occupied since 24 February. However, such demands are viewed as “unrealistic and inadequate” by Moscow and as “maximalist” in some Western capitals. While Ukraine’s key allies claim that it is up to Kyiv to decide on the timing and framework of any negotiations with Russia, private discussions on what would be acceptable conditions to halt fighting will likely pick up amid intensifying Moscow’s push for talks.
2.5 Five ways the Ukraine war could end
US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said in November that there’s no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it can only be ended with peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
A tide of calls for a negotiated end to the war have build slowly through out November, reversing the earlier Western stance of not negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In April just after the Bucha massacre Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was reportedly close to a peace deal with Russia when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv and told him the West would not support any deal should he reach one with Putin.
Today the official US position is that Ukraine is the only one to decide on peace talks and potential concessions, but in practise if the West throttles back on its military and financial aid then Zelenskiy will be forced to sue for peace.
The west is increasingly nervous of getting dragged into the war through a mistake. The two Ukrainian missiles that hit a Polish village on November 15
10 UKRAINE Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com