Page 33 - bne Magazine February 2023

bne February 2023 Cover Story I 33
Ukraine could face a shortage
of ammunition in the second half of this year unless the West invests in new production, as stocks are already running low and the exist- ing production can’t keep up with the rate of fire as the fighting becomes a grinding war of attrition, the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has warned in a recent study.
Since the war started Ukraine has been increasingly supplied by the West with
focused more on developing high-tech precision arms. As the US in particu- lar relies on private companies to produce arms, if there are no orders for a particular weapon or munitions then the companies simply shut that produc- tion line down.
It has left the West ill-equipped to supply the classic confrontation that is the Ukrainian war, where hundreds of thousands of troops face off against hundreds of thousands of opponents,
the partial mobilisation that started on September 21 and recently said Russia is trying to build a 2mn-strong army. Mobilisation units, including legislative amendments and the preparation
of educational centres, are already underway in Russia and the Duma ended the military service exemption for fathers of three or more children. Both sides are reportedly preparing for major counter-offensives in the spring.
With a deep gulf between both sides’
materiel, starting with the US-made Javelin missiles and up to most recently the UK promise of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, just as the US has promised a total of $113bn worth of arms. Ukraine’s own military production facilities have been largely destroyed by an unrelenting Russian missile barage.
Having sent most of their Soviet-era stock of arms and ammo, which were compatible with Ukraine's own legacy weapons, former Warsaw Pact members now in Nato are increasingly dipping into their own stocks of modern, Western-made weapons. Increasingly the Nato members are dipping into their own stocks of modern Western made weapons. And those stocks are starting to run low.
“It’s getting harder and harder,” Repub- lican Mike Quigley, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN. “This is a war we thought would be over in days but now could be years. At a time when global supply chains are melting down, the West is going to have a very difficult time to meet demands at this very high level.”
The degree to which weapons stock- piles are running low varies system
by system, as the US defence and industrial base is better equipped to ramp up production of some weapons, while others are more difficult – or the production line has been shut down altogether and can’t be easily resumed.
The problem is that, after years of fighting asymmetric wars against terror organisations like Al Qaeda and Boko Haram, the West has shut down its conventional arms production and
burning through thousands of rounds of artillery shells and hundreds of missiles a week.
Wary of getting sucked into a direct confrontation with Russia and mindful of the cost of putting their economies on a war footing, the West has been reluctant to invest in building up military production to supply Ukraine in a long war with Russia.
In the midst of a polycrisis that has already cost Europe around €1 trillion, governments have been slow to sign off on the multiyear procurement contracts that defence groups need to invest in a major revamp of their production. The Financial Times reports that many of Europe’s leading arms producers are in talks with governments about investing
starting position for peace talks – Russia wants Ukraine to concede the four regions it annexed in September, while Kyiv says it won’t start talks until Russia retreats to beyond the 1991 borders – there is little hope of
a ceasefire anytime soon.
Rate of fire
Reports from the intense fighting currently underway for Bakhmut in the Donbas say that both sides have begun to ration their ammunition. Ukrainian officers report that the number of shells arriving has dropped by a third and military experts report that Russia has also reduced its rate of fire, as it is also struggling to resupply its guns.
CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian asked in his report: “Are inventories
“The West has been reluctant to invest into building up military production to supply Ukraine in a long war with Russia”
in new production, but few contracts have been signed and little invested yet. For Europe at least, the Rubicon has not yet been crossed.
But increasingly it looks like a long war is on the cards. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in December that he expects a “long war” in Ukraine, but that he saw “no sense” in mobilising additional soldiers at this point.
Ukraine intelligence predicted a second mass mobilisation in January to follow
getting too low? How long will it take
to rebuild those inventories?” An early CSIS study already suggested that the Nato inventories were at risk of running dangerously low as a result of the transfers to Ukraine.
Ukraine is burning through its supplies of ammunition far faster than the Nato members can make more. For example, the US has already transferred just over 1mn 155mm standard artillery shells
to Ukraine, but its current production capacity to make more is capped at
www.bne.eu