Page 44 - bne Magazine February 2023

44 I OUTLOOK 2023 bne February 2023
SOUTHEAST EUROPE
The war in Ukraine had a seismic effect on the security, political and economic landscape of Southeast Europe. It is just across the border for Moldova and Romania and in the near neighbourhood for most of Southeast Europe.
Fears of a spillover into the region were not realised
in 2022, but there are still concerns that Russia could seek to embroil Moldova — part of which is controlled by Russia-backed separatists — in the war, or to cause tensions to overflow in existing hotspots such as northern Kosovo or Bosnia’s Republika Srpska.
Moldova is the only country in the region facing a potential military threat from the war. Ever since
the invasion in February there has been speculation that Russia might push through from Ukraine to the separatist republic of Transnistria in Moldova, or that Moldova itself might be dragged into the war.
This has not happened, mainly as a result of Chisinau’s caution — it has not imposed sanctions on Russia despite moving closer to the West during 2022 — and because of the efforts by both Chisinau and Tiraspol to ensure that the conflict between the two sides of the country does not escalate. However, towards the end
of the year tensions increased as cuts in deliveries of Russian gas put the squeeze on both Moldova proper and Moscow-backed Transnistria.
Most of the other countries in the region are either Nato members or aspiring members. The Nato presence has been stepped up in countries like Romania that are on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank.
Western Balkan flashpoints
Other security issues facing the region are internal, though some of these divisions have been amplified by the conflict further east.
At the beginning of 2022, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel identified Bosnia & Herzegovina as one of the two most critical flashpoints in Europe, along with Ukraine. The international security presence in both Bosnia and Kosovo was stepped up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over fears Moscow might destabilise one or both of the volatile situations in the Western Balkans.
In Bosnia, Milodad Dodik, president of the country’s Serb entity Republika Srpska, has been loudly repeating threats that the entity will secede from Bosnia for years. However, fears that a more serious attempt to secede might be made in 2022 — possibly at the instigation of Dodo’s political ally Russian President Vladimir Putin — did not materialise.
Additional tensions came from the actions of the international community’s high representative in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, whose high-handed decision to change the electoral rules on October 2 — election day in Bosnia — drew widespread condemnation from within and outside the country.
On the other hand, Bosnia was drawn closer into the Western camp in December when it was given long- awaited EU candidate status, despite the sluggish pace of reform resulting from repeated political deadlocks. Another positive development was the unusually speedy formation of new governments at state and entity level following the October elections.
Stand-off in northern Kosovo
The other major security flashpoint in the Southeast Europe region in northern Kosovo, where the situation deteriorated dramatically in the second half of 2022.
A stand-off was triggered by the mundane but politically sensitive issue of car number plates; the Kosovan government required that cars across the country including the mainly ethnic Serb northern Kosovo
have number plates with the RKS code rather than the old neutral status KS.
Tensions over the issue led to mass protests, road barricades and a walkout of state institutions by ethnic Serb officials. The situation was only eased right at the end
of 2022, under heavy pressure from the EU and the US. However, the situation remains volatile and the next crisis point is expected to be reached in April, when local elections to replace officials that quit in 2022 are due to take place.
Between Russia and the West
Even where there was no security threat, the war in Ukraine and the new geopolitical situation added to existing tensions and created new political rifts in a number of countries in the region. In much of Southeast Europe, even some EU members, the question of whether to steer Westwards or maintain a close relationship with Russia remains open.
This has become problematic for Serbia, where President Aleksander Vucic has continued with his long-standing policy of seeking friendly relations with both Russia and the West, as well as China. This has served the country well in the past, but post-invasion Belgrade has been under heavy pressure to join sanctions on Russia. So far, the Serbian government has refused to do so because of Belgrade’s long- standing relations with Russia as well as Moscow’s backing over the Kosovo issue.
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