Page 139 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

The public debt remained under 50% of GDP despite massive borrowing, thanks to the rise of the nominal GDP (fueled by inflation). The gap may slip above 50% in case the government fails to keep the deficit closer to the planned trajectory, with an impact on the country’s sovereign rating, which is currently at the closest investment-grade region.
Romania’s public deficit reached RON62.8bn (€12.6bn) in January-October, 2023, one-third more than in the same period of the previous year. The deficit to GDP ratio reached almost 4%, up from 3.34% in the same period of 2022.
Revenues increased by 10.6% y/y to RON418.8bn (26.5% of the year’s projected GDP) and expenditures increased by 13.1% y/y to RON481.7bn (30.4% of GDP).
The revenues increased by only 8% y/y in October, while the expenditures advanced much faster by 15% y/y, but the monthly data may not be entirely relevant, as opposed to quarterly data.
Romania expects to keep the public deficit ratio in 2023 not much higher than the previous year’s 5.75% of GDP value (cash terms).
On the revenues side, the collection of excise duties advanced by only 2.6% y/y in January-October 2023.
On the expenditures side, the interest on public debt rose by 15.2% to RON28.1bn (1.8% of GDP). The capital expenditures maintained a robust pace of 17.9% y/y and reached RON28.0bn (1.8% of GDP) as well.
The government in Bucharest drew up the 2024 budget with a deficit of
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