Page 21 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

Polls indicate that the Social Democrats improved their electoral support to over 30% while the Liberals are losing traction among what used to be their core electorate – with no charismatic leader, dragged down by the plunging support for Iohannis (who is completing his second term) and the cooperation with their historic rivals, furthermore from a position of inferiority.
1.10 Politics - Serbia
Serbia ended 2023 with a general election. Held on December 17, the vote resulted in yet another landslide victory for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). However, hopes that the snap general election would stabilise the political situation in the country proved to be unfounded. It has been followed by a wave of protests by opposition groups that claim the vote – especially the local election in the capital Belgrade – was rigged, and strong criticism from Serbia’s Western partners.
Entering 2024, the new government is yet to be formed. Despite formally stepping down from the leadership of the SNS, President Aleksandar Vucic remains the pre-eminent politician in the country and is still seen as the ruling party’s unofficial leader.
The government is headed by Ana Brnabic, a close ally of Vucic. It is unclear as yet whether Brnabic, Prime Minister since 2017, will head the next government, or if the election will be followed by more fundamental changes than those that followed the previous general election in April 2022.
It is clear, however, that the SNS maintains its dominance of the Serbian political scene, after initially coming to power back in 2012. The party won 46.72% of the vote in the general election, according to preliminary results from the election commission.
The SNS has frequently called snap general elections during its time in power, despite successive governments being stable, using the votes to reinforce its position.
The latest snap vote was called after two mass shootings within days of each other in May 2023 sparked weekly mass protests organised under the ‘Serbia without Violence’ umbrella. Protesters called for elections plus an end to what they called the culture of violence disseminated via pro-government TV stations and other media outlets.
A coalition running as Serbia without Violence came second in the general election, albeit trailing the SNS. It failed to make headway at least because of the continued fragmentation of the opposition. Other
21 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com