Page 48 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

Source: World Bank, IMF, Serbian statistics office, NBS
2.10.1 GDP growth
Serbian Finance Minister Sinisa Mali said on December 11 that the country’s economic growth for 2024 is estimated to be between 2.5% and 2.6%.
That is somewhat below the forecast from the European Commission of 3.1% growth, and the 3.0% from both the IMF and World Bank. The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has a 4% medium-term outlook.
This comes after in the third quarter of 2023, Serbia posted GDP growth of 3.6%, accelerating from 1.6% y/y growth in the previous three months. In the same period in 2022, Serbia posted GDP growth of 1.2%.
All sectors posted growth in the third quarter, but the most significant growth was registered in the construction sector of 12.8%, followed by agriculture (9.5%) and the IT sector (6.3%).
Examining the GDP components, real annual growth was observed in household final consumption expenditure (1.3%), final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households (2.7%), government final consumption expenditure (1.7%), and gross fixed capital formation (4.1%).
Real declines were noted in the export of goods and services, 1.5%, and the import of goods and services, 1.2%.
The IMF noted in October 2023 that the Serbian economy has shown resilience in the face of challenges, particularly the energy shocks experienced last year, despite unfavourable global and regional conditions.
Predicted growth for 2023 is 2%, with an increase to 3% in 2024, driven by the recovery in domestic demand, according to the IMF.
The European Commission said in November that Serbia is poised for a cautious economic recovery in the coming years. 2024 and 2025 are projected to see increasingly robust economic expansion, with growth rates of 3.1% and 3.7% respectively according to the European Commission.
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