Page 66 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

3.11 External Environment - Slovenia
Slovenia posted a trade deficit of €1.8bn in the first ten months of 2023, a significant improvement on the deficit of over €3.2bn recorded in the corresponding time frame of 2022, according to data released by the statistics office.
In the first ten months, Slovenia's exports amounted to €45.8bn, representing a 4.7% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.
Simultaneously, imports reached €47.7bn, marking a more modest 1% growth. The resulting export-import ratio stood at 96.2%.
According to the Slovenian government, the macroeconomic landscape continues to be marked by uncertainty, stemming from the global situation, heightened inflation, and the catastrophic floods that swept through substantial areas of Slovenia in August. Preliminary evaluations of the damages indicate that billions of euros will be essential to address the aftermath of the floods. Consequently, a substantial reallocation of resources within the national budget is anticipated, with a predominant focus on earmarking funds for flood recovery measures.
Fitch anticipates a rebound in the current account, projecting a return to historical surpluses in 2023, reaching 4.5% of GDP. This follows a minor deficit of 1.0% recorded in 2022. The positive shift is attributed to a resurgence in trade surpluses, driven by a more substantial decrease in imports of goods compared to exports, coupled with an improvement in terms of trade. Additionally, the services surplus is expected to expand, bolstered by a robust tourism season.
Looking ahead, Fitch forecasts a slight narrowing of the current account surplus to approximately 3% in 2024-2025, reflecting a more gradual recovery in exports compared to imports. The agency foresees a positive trajectory in the net external creditor position and the net international investment position, expecting further improvement throughout the period spanning 2023-2025.
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