Page 13 - GEORptDec17

Higher exports and investment push first-half growth in all EBRD countries bar two
Higher exports and rising levels of investment on the back of improving commodity prices have prompted the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to significantly increase its forecasts for economic growth in Emerging Europe. The bank made its case for the revised forecasting in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report released on November 6 .
Countries across the entire EBRD region, with two exceptions, are enjoying broad-based growth and rising income levels. Several countries where the development bank is active are also experiencing record low unemployment. The negatives in the picture are minimal and are mainly caused by economies running up against structural constraints. Rising inflation is, however, a growing concern in some locations.
Average growth across the EBRD region will be 3.3% this year, the development bank forecast. That equates to a rise of 0.9 percentage points over the previous estimate from the bank that was issued in May at the time of the bank’s annual meeting. Growth in 2016 only reached 1.9%.
The EBRD tracks the economies of 37 emerging countries, where it finances projects and supports reforms that promote sustainable and environmentally-friendly market economies.
Growth in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus as a whole is expected to pick up from near-zero to close to 1.5% in 2017 as headwinds from low commodity prices and the earlier recession in Russia subside, although Azerbaijan’s economy is projected to remain in recession. A gradual recovery in the region is set to continue in 2018.
Growth in Turkey is projected to accelerate to 5.1% in 2017 on the back of government stimuli before slowing to 3.5% in 2018 as the fiscal impact wears off.
13 GEORGIA Country Report December 2017 www.intellinews.com