Page 6 - TURKRptAug22

declined to 36.3% y/y in May from a record high of 37.2% y/y in April.
Federal Reserve
On June 15, the Fed hiked its policy rate by 75bp to 1.50-1.75%.
The US state central bank governors expected to deliver seven more rate hikes in the remaining four meetings of 2022 (July 27, September 21, November 2, December 14). That would bring the policy rate to 3.25-3.50%.
On July 27, the FED hiked its policy rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%.
On September 21, the Fed’s open market committee is currently expected to deliver another 50bp rate hike following its next meeting. Updated projections by governors will also be released.
Annual CPI inflation in the US rose to 9.1% in June from 8.6% in May. As of July 31, average gasoline price in the US was up 33% y/y to $4.22 per gallon (Record: $5.02 on June 14).
Note that more than $2 trillion has already been printed. It presently resides on the Fed’s balance sheet under the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the Reverse Repo (RRP) account. When the Fed zeroes its net money printing volume, this money will continue flowing into the system.
Tightening via both monetary and fiscal policies is marking out the current period. How long it can possibly last is under observation.
30-year mortgage rates in the US stood at 5.30% on July 28. November 8: Midterm elections in the US. Democrats are expected to
lose their majority in the Congress.
The US is getting ready for a more powerful populist president (not Trump but someone else) in 2024.
Social tensions and wars are globally laying ahead.
● Erdogan’s monetary policy remains totally out of control.
On July 4, official CPI inflation for June was released at 78.6% y/y, the highest figure recorded since the 80.4% posted in September 1998.
At 79%, Turkey stays in sixth place in the global inflation league.
Turkey’s official producer price (PPI) inflation, meanwhile, entered three-digit territory for the first time since March 1995, when it posted 144.3% y/y.
May: 132%, June: 138%.
The ENAG research group inflation figure came in at 176% y/y for June.
6 TURKEY Country Report August 2022 www.intellinews.com