Page 11 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

1.3 Politics – Bulgaria
Bulgaria is going through its deepest political crisis since the fall of communist regime, which is stalling key reforms and carries risks of strengthening radical and pro-Russian formations. In October 2024, the country held its seventh general election since April 2021, which produced a highly fragmented parliament with no clear possibilities for a stable ruling coalition.
Gerb, led by three-times former prime minister Boyko Borissov, won the October snap vote but has only 69 out of 240 MPs – far from enough for stable government. Reformist pro-Western Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) came second with 37 MPs, followed by far-right pro-Russian Vazrazhdane. Fourth ranked was DPS – New Beginning led by Magnitsky-sanctioned Delyan Peevski.
Although Borissov and Peevski have never entered into a formal coalition, they have acted jointly over the past years and are seen as close allies. Despite that, Borissov seems reluctant to formalise his partnership with Peevski and is looking for other options to return to power. In mid-December, Gerb invited three formations to coalition talks but their success seems highly unlikely.
In case of failure, Bulgaria will hold another snap vote in early 2025, most likely in March or April. That would delay key reforms and might produce an even more fragmented parliament with stronger influence from Peevski.
Despite the political crisis, Bulgaria managed to achieve one of its top goals – as of January 1, 2025, the country is a full member of the Schengen border-free area, after Austria lifted its veto in December.
The country is also trying to achieve its other priority – to be admitted to the eurozone. Theoretically, it can achieve the last criterion – on inflation – by early 2025. However, the country needs a stable regular government to be accepted into the eurozone. According to most analysts, this could happen in January 2026.
1.4 Politics – Croatia
Croatia enters 2025 part-way through its presidential elections. The first round at the end of 2024 saw incumbent President Zoran Milanović take a clear lead over his rivals, but fall just short of the outright majority he needed for a first round victory.
11 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com