Page 117 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

Consequently, the Treasury's buffer increased by only MDL2bn this year compared to MDL5bn in the first ten months of 2023. The buffer decreased to MDL9.9bn at the end of October 2024, from MDL11.4bn one year earlier.
Moldova’s public deficit increased by nearly MDL10bn in the first nine months of 2024, to MDL109.9bn or 33.5% of the GDP projected for 2024.
The debt to GDP ratio increased from 31.5% one year earlier and 32.7% at the end of 2023, but remains at a very moderate level.
The domestic public debt reached 38.5% of total, against a minimum level set at 30%.
The share of public debt due over the coming 12 months as of September 2024 was 30.5% compared to a maximum level set at 35%.
The share of bills and bonds traded on the local market rose to 94.5% at the end of September, compared to a 90% maximum threshold. The external public debt accounts for 61.5% of total public debt, up from 59.5% one year earlier.
Moldova has unveiled its draft 2025 state budget with a focus on fiscal consolidation and investment. The Ministry of Finance drafted the 2025 state budget with a 4.0% of GDP deficit.
The document outlines increased revenues and expenditures, alongside continued investment in key sectors to support macroeconomic stability and social priorities.
State budget revenues are estimated at MDL71.55bn, a 6.8% (MDL4.54bn) increase compared to 2024.
State budget expenditures are projected at MDL85.45bn, up 4.1% (MDL3.33bn) from 2024.
The budget deficit is forecasted at MDL13.89bn, representing 4.05% of GDP.
The 2025 draft budget relies on macroeconomic indicators revised in October by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalisation, including GDP growth predicted at 3% in real terms, with a nominal GDP of MDL348.4bn.
The key drivers are supposed to be the increased private consumption due to monetary policy relaxation and wage growth. Resumption of lending and rising investment levels are also expected to continue. Economic recovery among trade partners would boost Moldova’s foreign trade with a positive impact on economic growth.
The national public budget is expected to see an 8.7% increase in revenues and a 7.7% rise in expenditures compared to 2024.
The Ministry of Finance has prioritised infrastructure, education, health and energy security amid continued regional security risks and energy
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