Page 122 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

The government’s revised Fiscal Strategy estimates a fiscal deficit of 2.7% of GDP for 2024, with a medium-term projection of a 3% GDP deficit. Notably, Serbia recorded a budget surplus of RSD29.07bn (€248mn) in the first nine months of 2024, outperforming expectations of an RSD85.7bn deficit. This surplus is attributed to stronger than expected revenue inflows.
A new policy arrangement with the IMF, concluded in December 2024, includes Serbia’s commitment to capping its fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP from 2025 to 2027. The IMF also expects Serbia to reduce public debt to 45% of GDP by 2025 and lower in subsequent years.
Serbia has continued its disciplined fiscal management, maintaining public debt below 50% of GDP. At the end of October 2024, general government public debt was 46.8% of GDP, down from 48% at the end of 2023. This marks a steady decline from a peak of 57% during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Serbia’s current account deficit (CAD) widened during January-October 2024 to €3.7bn, driven by increased imports linked to investment cycles and higher consumer spending. This is a notable shift from 2023, when the CAD was significantly reduced to €1.8bn (2.4% of GDP). The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) projects that the CAD will reach around 5% of GDP in the coming years, a level considered sustainable.
Serbia’s 2025 fiscal strategy emphasises maintaining fiscal discipline while promoting growth through significant capital investments. Revenue growth and infrastructure projects are expected to support long-term economic development, while the government continues to keep public debt within sustainable levels.
6.11 Budget and Debt – Slovenia
The Slovenian parliament approved revised state budgets for 2025 and 2026 on November 21, prioritising economic development, healthcare, and housing policies amid heightened security concerns and regional economic uncertainty.
The budgets align with Slovenia's medium-term fiscal-structural plan for the next two years.
For 2025, state revenues are projected at €15.2bn, with expenditures of €17.1bn, resulting in a budget deficit of €1.9bn, or 2.6% of GDP, according to the Finance Ministry. By 2026, revenues are expected to increase to €15.9bn, while expenditures remain at €17.1bn, reducing the deficit to €1.2bn, or 1.6% of GDP.
Key measures in the budgets include initiatives to strengthen Slovenia's economy, healthcare, education and housing sectors, supported by European funds.
The government will also continue addressing the aftermath of the devastating 2023 floods, having allocated over €900mn to recovery
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