Page 32 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

2.6 Macroeconomy – Moldova
MOLDOVA key economic figures and forecasts
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 9.6 10.5 10.1 11.6 13.7 15.3 16.4
Real GDP (% y/y) 4.1 3.6 -8.3 13.9 -4.6 0.7 0.4
Industrial output (% y/y) 3.8 2.1 -5.7 12.4 -5.0 -3.8 1.0
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 2.9 5.1 3.8 3.2 3.1 4.6 4.2
Nominal wages (% y/y) 13.2 14.1 10.2 12.4 15.5 17.3 15.1
Producer prices (avg, % y/y) 0.4 1.8 2.6 8.5 26.7 12.6 -0.1
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 2.9 4.8 3.8 5.1 28.7 13.4 4.5
Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 0.9 7.5 0.4 13.9 30.2 4.2 5.2
General budget balance (% of GDP)** -1.5 -5.3 -2.6 -5.1 -5.2 -5.0
Public debt (% of GDP) ** 28.1 35.6 34.6 36.6 38.6 38.2
Current account balance (% of GDP)** -9.5 -7.8 -12.4 -17.2 -11.9 -14.9
Official FX reserves (USD bn) ** 3.06 3.78 3.90 4.47 5.43 6.01
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) ** 61.9 70.0 63.3 66.5 62.2 65.3
EUR/LC (avg) * 19.63 19.62 20.86 19.86 19.58 19.18
USD/LC (avg) 17.52 17.25 17.64 18.88 18.1 17.72 Source: Statistics Bureau, National Bank of Moldova, IMF
12 months to September 2024 on the 2024 year column, unless otherwise specified ** IMF projection for 2024
* full 2024
2.6.1 GDP growth
Moldova’s economy marked a modest overall growth rate of only 0.6% y/y in January-September 2024, not far from the 0.7% y/y growth in 2023. The performance was particularly disappointing in Q3 which saw a 1.9% y/y contraction and, in seasonally adjusted terms, a decline of 3.1% quarter on quarter.
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