Page 55 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

The European Commission projects the trade balance deficit for goods to reach 19.7% of GDP in 2025, up from 19.2%/GDP in 2024 and 18.1%/GDP in 2023.
The current account deficit is forecasted at 2.3% of GDP in 2025, following 2.5% of GDP in 2024, compared with a surplus of 0.4%/GDP in 2023.
As of August 2024, foreign exchange reserves totalled €4.5bn, covering 4.1 months of forecasted 2025 current account payables, with a liquidity ratio (calculated by Fitch) comfortably exceeding 100%. The de facto currency peg remains firmly supported by official policy. The current account deficit is expected to be largely financed by FDI inflows. While gross and net external debt levels exceed peer medians, approximately 40% of government external debt is concessional, and inter-company lending accounts for 66% of private sector external debt.
3.9 External Environment – Romania
Romania’s current account (CA) deficit climbed to €28.4bn in the 12 months to October 2024, representing 8.2% of GDP based on the latest available data, according to official statistics.
Projections suggest the CA deficit may fall slightly to 7.9% of GDP when calculated against estimated full-year 2024 GDP. However, the gap is expected to exceed 8% by the year’s end.
Most of CA’s sections contributed to the widening deficit The CA deficit in 12 months to October marked a 32% y/y increase, driven by a widening trade-in-goods deficit, a shrinking trade-in-services surplus, and higher net outflows from foreign investors’ earnings.
Although secondary transfers saw a minor improvement, it failed to offset the broader deterioration.
The trade-in-goods deficit remains the primary contributor to the CA shortfall. Over the past 12 months, the deficit widened by €4bn, reaching €32.7bn, accounting for the bulk of the €6.3bn deterioration in the overall CA balance.
55 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com