Page 59 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025

Serbia’s external risks in 2025 will include subdued economic growth in the EU and potential volatility in global financial markets. However, the country’s efforts to diversify its trade relationships, alongside its robust export-oriented manufacturing and ICT sectors, will help mitigate these risks.
3.11 External Environment – Slovenia
Slovenia boasts a well-developed, export-oriented economy with a middle-income status, marked by high human development, relative political stability, and low inequality. The country’s nominal GDP stands at $73.8bn, with a per capita GDP of $34,839. With a small domestic market of just over 2mn people, the country’s economy relies heavily on foreign trade and is influenced by the economic conditions of its major trading partners.
The European Commission forecasts Slovenia to record a trade deficit in goods of 0.9% of GDP in 2025, up from an estimated 0.6% in 2024, with the deficit expected to deepen further to 1.2% in 2026.
At the same time, the current account surplus is projected to be 2.9% of GDP in 2025, slightly down from 3% in 2024, and to decrease further to 2.6% in 2026.
OECD said that Slovenian exports are gaining momentum, supported by a gradual recovery in external demand. In the third quarter of 2024, the value of merchandise and service exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year. Improved financial conditions in the euro area have also boosted credit growth, with loans to the non-banking sector rising by 1.4% y/y in August 2024, compared with 1% in July.
Slovenia posted a trade deficit of nearly €6.3bn in the first ten months of 2024, statistics office data indicated. In the first ten months, exports grew by 11.7% to €51.3bn, while imports increased by 20.6% to €57.6bn.
In the first ten months, exports to and imports from non-EU countries recorded the highest value increases, rising by 25.1% and 46.1%, respectively. The import-to-export coverage was 89.1% up to the end of October. Germany and Italy remained Slovenia's key trading partners for goods within the EU in October.
The export orientation indicator across all activities reached its lowest point this year at 44%, Slovenian statistics office said. Manufacturing enterprises generated 74% of their total net revenue from foreign market sales, marking the lowest level in seven quarters. In the transportation and storage sector, the indicator stood at 45%, also the lowest recorded this year.
In 2023, Slovenia imported €7.4bn worth of goods from China, nearly double the amount imported the previous year. Chinese imports have been growing rapidly, surpassing those from Germany in value. In contrast, Slovenia imported €7bn worth of goods from Germany,
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