Page 7 - bne IntelliNews Southeastern Europe Outlook 2025
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     of the long-lived crisis.
Croatia enters 2025 in mid-presidential election. The second round, due to take place on January 12, will most likely result in a victory for incumbent President Zoran Milanovic, setting up another period of uneasy cohabitation with the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led government. The HDZ is also under pressure after a series of corruption scandals, most recently concerning ex-health minister Vili Beros, who was arrested in autumn 2024. In Neighbouring Slovenia, the popularity of the ruling Freedom Party has slumped to a record low, which the right-wing opposition Slovenia Democratic Party (SDS) has exploited as it seeks a comeback. A general election is due to happen by spring 2026, but there is speculation it may be brought forward to 2025. The return of former US president Donald Trump could benefit SDS leader Janez Jansa, who is poised to capitalise on any resurgence in populist sentiment.
Elections are also upcoming in Albania and Kosovo. In the former, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists are expected to take yet another term amid opposition disarray, but protests and potentially broader unrest are expected as the Socialists have now been in power for almost 12 years. Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s left-wing nationalist Vetevendosje is also heading for another term, polls indicate.
By contrast, Serbia’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) remains deeply entrenched in power. Successive waves of protests – the latest sparked by a deadly accident at Novi Sad railway station – have failed to dislodge President Aleksandar Vucic’s party from power.
However, Belgrade remains under pressure for its neutral stance towards Russia. The US is expected to sanction the country’s largest oil and gas company, NIS, in which Russia’s Gazprom is a major shareholder, in mid-January. Serbia’s refusal to sanction Russia, and thus align with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, has led to calls for its EU accession progress to be frozen, but Belgrade shows no sign of budging on the issue.
EU accession is a primary goal across the Western Balkans region. Montenegro remains the frontrunner, with hopes of accession by the end of the decade. Albania is also advancing, no longer held back by its neighbour’s lack of progress as it is no longer coupled with North Macedonia.
It is unclear how North Macedonia will manage to unblock its EU path as unpopular constitutional changes required by EU member Bulgaria have to be passed before it can open negotiations.
Meanwhile, the EU aspiring Western Balkans region is benefitting from a pre-accession boost as it emerges as a nearshoring destination for European companies thanks to its geographic proximity, skilled workforce and relatively low cost. Romania has long been a destination
 7 SE Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com
 

























































































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