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Russia is our enemy. It is trying most of Russia’s claims – such as on Nato today, whereas the Moscow Consensus
expansion – are simply dismissed in the West as excuses or whataboutism.
Moscow Consensus
Where is the truth? Somewhere in the middle, but just how far to the right or left will remain the subject of a hot debate that will go on for as long as Putin remains in office.
While the international press is full
of Russia-gate conspiracy theories
and reports of very real Russia-linked assassinations that feed the fire, there is another pragmatic “Moscow Consensus” view of Russia that is a lot more benign.
This one is harder to sum up, but includes: yes Russia is corrupt, but most Russians accept that as a fact of life as long as it stays “within reason;” yes Russia is not very democratic, but people’s votes do matter, just not as much as they matter in the West; yes there are big problems with the rule of law, property rights and corporate governance, but Russia has made enormous progress in the last three decades with all of these problems.
The list could go on but the point is that the Western coverage of Russia compares Moscow today with London
to destabilise the international
order and undermine democracy so that Russian President Vladimir Putin can re-establish the USSR for the benefit of his corrupt cronies. Against him stand those of the civilised world who believe in the values of democratic individual freedoms, justice and the rule of law.
Is that a fairly accurate picture of how many governments and commentators see Russia today? I’m sure a lot of people would add a lot to the list, but let's take this as the starting point.
How about the Russians? They of course see things a little differently. The US is
a global hegemon that is determined
to dominate the international order with a unipolar view of the world. It is belligerent and adheres to international law only when it suits it. It invests in “human rights” and “pro-democracy” organisations as a proxy for importing its world view and imposing it on
other countries. It's not Russia that is empire building, but the US through the relentless expansion of Nato to surround Russia and the Americans would attempt a regime change in Russia if they could.
You can take issue with all of this and
point of view highlights that Russia is
a country that has been transitioning from being a totalitarian basket-case to a liberal free market capitalist system for only three decades. Compare Moscow
in 1993 to Moscow in 2020 and they are night and day.
And the Moscow Consensus business people are putting their money where their mouth is. Bond investors are overweight Russian Ministry of Finance ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bills, which are amongst the most popular bonds in the world. Equity investors were finally flooding back into the Russian stock market in 2019, which was the best performing in the world. The RTS index broke its five-year highs in the first quarter of this year, until
the emerging markets (EM) sell-off at the end of February marked the start
of the current crisis. And ever since IKEA opened its first store in Russia in 2008, large multinational firms that are already in Russia continue to reinvest every kopeck they make into growth as business is so profitable.
“Russia is a gold mine,” Vincent Gentil, the CEO of a leading French DIY chain, Leroy Merlin, told bne IntelliNews in 2016 in the midst of a recession at the time.
WASHINGTON CONSENSUS
MOSCOW CONSENSUS
Free trade
Protectionism and autarky
Private business independent of government, pursues only profit
State-owned enterprises semi-commercial, participate in package deals including commerce, energy and arms deals
Democracy with the individual vote sacrosanct
Managed democracy with balance between individual votes and state interests
Freedom of press, right to protest
Managed press, restricted right to protest
Unipolar world with US as global policeman
Multi-polar world with UN and G20 taking collective decisions
Putin is trying to destabilise the international order, undermine democracy and rebuild the USSR
US is would-be global hegemon acting in its own interests first
Low debt is good, but actually borrow heavily to support status quo
Low debt is good and actually have low debt
Corruption bad, but institutionalise legalised lobbying
Corruption bad, but use corruption as a political tool
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