Page 21 - TURKRptOct22

Terror season begins
Two days before the election, the terror season began with a bomb attack that targeted an HDP rally in Diyarbakir city. At that point, it was clear the Turks were not about to provide the 400 seats.
In July 2015, the HPG claimed responsibility for the execution of two policemen in Ceylanpinar town of Urfa province. Later on, some PKK figures changed their mind, claiming that they were not the perpetrators. Ascribing responsibility in this shadow war is never easy.
During the summer and autumn of 2015, the bloodbath grew worse. The PKK attacked Turkish cities. Islamic State carried out the biggest ever terrorist attacks seen in Turkey, targeting the HDP. And, it continued. See “how states make use of terrorists” here.
In September 2015, Erdogan said in a televised interview that if a party had secured 400 seats in the June election and had reached the required number in parliament to change the constitution, the situation would be different now.
In November 2015, a new election was held after the AKP used up the legal period to form a government, fooling the Republican People’s Party (CHP) via preliminary coalition talks.
Participation in the new poll fell. Kurdish votes returned to the AKP to avoid more bloodshed. Erdogan regained his parliamentary majority, but fell short of the 400 threshold.
The issue would only be resolved in 2017 after the failed coup attempt in July 2016.
Right now, Erdogan has already lost the next parliamentary and presidential elections that are to be held in June 2023 at the latest. He is testing all his options while keeping “nuclear” options on the cards.
It is Erdogan’s style to keep all alternatives alive. If at any moment he saw a chance to win, for instance, he could call a snap poll.
But such is the multi-faceted mire that Turkey finds itself in, none of Erdogan’s current efforts can alter the fact that he has already lost the next elections. In the period ahead, he will come to accept this fact and push buttons to initiate “nuclear” options.
As Turkey’s murky legislation stands, a war would be a lawful reason to delay the elections. Another scenario, would see the eruption of violence across the country and the claiming of a victory by Erdogan that opponents would decry as fake. In such a case, maintaining stability in Turkey would be a hopeless task. A Syria or Iraq scenario would be likely.
A third possibility would see Erdogan fleeing abroad to avoid imprisonment.
In the period ahead, Turkey watchers will assess when and where violence could flare up. But the tensions with Greece, note, are simply for fooling the fools.
Currently, almost the entirety of Turkey’s southern border area is a battlefield. In addition to the Kurds, there are some jihadist groups backed by Erdogan and there are some al-Qaeda offshoots that could at any time turn on Turkey.
They all have the networks and ability required to strike within Turkey.
Also important is the growing anti-migrant tension in Turkey that periodically
21 TURKEY Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com