Page 13 - UKRRptJul24

The grim prediction is based on various scenarios assessed by DTEK. The worst-case scenario anticipates continued Russian strikes on critical infrastructure and insufficient air defences and funding for repairs.
"Even if the country makes repairs, without missiles for air defence systems, Russia can easily keep targeting the energy system as it wants," Sakharuk said.
Under this scenario, DTEK would operate at around 10% of pre-war thermal power generation capacity, leading to a daily deficit of 2-4 gigawatts (GW) and a 25% overall system deficit, resulting in prolonged blackouts.
The damage from Russian attacks has been extensive. On April 11, a strike destroyed the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant that provides the capital with power, wiping out 100% of its operating company Centrenergo's generation capacity. Earlier, Russia targeted the Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant in Kharkiv Oblast on March 22, and another plant remains under occupation since 2022.
"[The worst case] is very close to realistic right now. Regarding what will happen this winter, we are heading very quickly to this [scenario]," Sakharuk warned.
Russia launched a barrage in January to run down Ukraine’s supplies of air
defence missiles, and intensified it with a barrage in March when those
supplies did run out. Since then Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine's
energy facilities doing massive damage and prompting rolling blackouts in a
dozen regions as capacity fails to keep up with demand.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin on June 11, highlighted the destruction of 9 GW of Ukraine's energy capacity due to Russian attacks. Last winter, peak energy consumption was 18 GW, meaning "half of that is gone now," Zelenskiy noted.
Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov echoed these concerns at the conference, stating that it would be impossible to restore 9 GW by winter, even with infrastructure repairs.
As bne
IntelliNews reported, Ukraine is
hoping to increase imports of power from the EU, but the current capacity and infrastructure
means that at best the EU supplies can halve the number of hours of blackouts
during peak demand.
Ukraine has seen an estimated 50% of its thermal generating capacity taken
13 UKRAINE Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com