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an MoU with shared objectives regarding Ukraine’s resilience and recovery. It establishes a basis for ongoing cooperation between the partners in energy, infrastructure and finance.
2.9 Ukraine cut off from power for two winters
Ukrainians are expected to face electricity shortages for at least the next two winters due to the ongoing energy crisis, exacerbated by the loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) from the national grid, Ukrayinska Pravda reported."
About 200-250 MW of generation (or 7.1%) of the required 3.5 GW can be restored in Ukraine by winter. Such rates of reconstruction are of unprecedented speed, according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Centre for Energy Research, writes ZN.ua work is being done in a variety of directions, with several projects already underway. Even the combined efforts of businesses, municipal structures, and state-owned firms will only result in an additional generating volume of up to 250 MW. According to the expert, this scale of generation is a positive outcome and an optimistic outlook.
He believes that by next year, it will be possible to install an additional gigawatt of energy capacity, up to 1.2 GW. This represents around 34-35% of the needed recovery. According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, the comparable building pace is absolutely unprecedented, as most large-scale production projects around the world take three to five years to complete.
Ukrainians might have only five to six hours of energy supply per day in the winter, but it all depends on the circumstances.
If Russia continues its air strikes on Ukrainian power plants, Ukrainians could be left without electricity and heating for up to 20 hours each day in the winter.
The failure to reconnect the Zaporizhzhia NPP has left Ukraine's energy system operating at just three of its twelve maximum capacity points, according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Centre. Speaking on Kyiv24, Kharchenko highlighted the critical impact of this shortfall.
"The state of Ukraine's energy system currently stands at three working maximum capacity points out of twelve. If we could somehow get back to managing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and put at least two to three units into operation, it would be a huge factor that would change the situation in the energy system. Restrictions would be practically unnecessary or would be needed very rarely," Kharchenko said.
Without the Zaporizhzhia NPP, power restrictions will be unavoidable. "If this does not happen, it will take us about two years to restore our capacities. That is, we will have restrictions for two winters, which is almost guaranteed. They will be minimised for the second winter of 2025-2026, but it is likely that they will be," Kharchenko added.
The anticipated power shortage in the winter is expected to reach up to 35%, potentially limiting Ukrainians to just five to six hours of electricity daily. By winter, Ukraine aims to restore 200-250 MW of generation capacity, which is only 7.1% of the required 3.5 GW. This effort has been compared to the
23 UKRAINE Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com