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3.2 Macro outlook
The EC forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth to be 6.2%, subject to the implementation of the Ukraine Plan for the Ukraine Facility program. This forecast was shared by Marlene Madsen, a top European Commission official, during URC2024 in Berlin. According to her, the selection and schedule of crucial reforms are very important. Emphasis should be placed on areas that can help Ukraine quickly integrate into the EU market. In addition, the EC wants this plan to give Ukrainian authorities an understanding of how to work with donors at the domestic level. Madsen also noted that reports on reforms contained in the Ukraine Plan will be coordinated with reports on EU enlargement. "From the point of view of the EC, this plan is a very successful tool to move faster in the short- and medium-term perspective and to ensure further integration into the EU," said the EC representative. In May, the EU adopted the Ukraine Plan, which is necessary for the implementation of the €50B Ukraine Facility program. This plan defines 69 reforms in 15 areas and 10 investments, broken down into 146 qualitative and quantitative indicators.
The World Bank maintains Ukraine's economic growth forecast for the current year and provides $109M in grant funding. The World Bank predicts the growth of the Ukrainian economy to be 3.2% in 2024, according to the bank's June report, Global Economic Prospects 2024. In January, the forecast was identical. The bank maintained its 2025 growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy at 6.5% with the caveat that the average growth rate in 2025-2026 will be at 5.8%. This forecast assumes active hostilities will continue through 2024 and moderate after that. As well, Ukraine willreceive $109M in grant funding through World Bank projects to restore and support the energy sector. An additional $62M within the framework of the HOPE housing repair project will be directed to small and medium-sized repairs of residential buildings partially damaged as a result of the war. Also, $47M under the RePowerEU project will be used to provide Kharkiv residents with a centralized heat supply; the purchase and installation of heating equipment are planned.
The Russian war against Ukraine was a turning point for the global economy. The Russian aggression has had severe consequences for the
54 UKRAINE Country Report July 2024 www.intellinews.com