Page 26 - bne magazine September 2020 russia melting

26 I Cover story bne September 2020
Ben Aris in Berlin
RUSSIA
IS MELTING
The frozen wastes of Russia’s interior are melting. That’s a big problem for Russia. And it could be an even bigger problem for the planet. A large share of Russia’s oil, gas, diamonds and metals are produced in cities that sit
on the permafrost. And thousands of kilometres of roads, rails and pipelines could sink into a bog, while some of the buildings and processing plants will simply fall over if the ground melts.
The climate crisis arrived in Russia this year and is going faster than elsewhere. Temperatures in northeastern Russia
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are rising two and half times faster than in the rest of the world. Few people live there but if Russia’s permafrost melts the economic cost could be astronomical.
Russia has 24 regions that are permanently frozen but only nine of those contain extensive infrastructure and cities. However, these regions are key to Russia’s economy, producing the bulk of its raw materials that account for almost half of the country’s GDP.
The main issue is that because the ground is so hard everything is built
on piles driven into the ice. Even in the brief summers, which only last a month, typically only the first half metre of top soil melts, which is why the pine trees that blanket much of the taiga are only a metre or so tall; their roots can’t get very deep before hitting the concrete- like layer of ice.
If the permafrost melts it will cause billions of dollars' worth of damage.
A recent study by Dmitry Streletskiy tried to assess the impact of climate change on the fixed assets in Russia’s permafrost regions that was published