Page 60 - bne magazine September 2020 russia melting

60 I New Europe in Numbers bne September 2020
Poland GDP growth, seasonally adjusted y/y change in %
Polish GDP contracts 7.9% y/y in Q2 in CEE’s mildest recession
Russia Gross Int Reserves ($mn gold incl)
Polish GDP fell a seasonally adjusted 7.9% y/y in the second quarter after expanding 1.7% y/y in the first quarter, a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on August 14 showed.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic kept the Polish economy in lockdown throughout a considerable part of the second quarter with some of the restrictions only easing from May on.
GDP contracted 8.2% y/y in unadjusted terms versus an expansion of 2% y/y the preceding quarter below, GUS data also showed. In quarterly terms, economic growth slowed down 8.9% after a contraction of 0.5% q/q in Q1.
Russian gross international reserves pass $600bn mark
Russian gross international reserves (GIR) reach a new post 2008 high, passing the $600bn mark as of the start of August.
“This is x10 Russia’s federal government external debt, which is around $60bn,” says Natalia Gurushina, an economist at VanEk. “Impressive progress in the past 15 years.”
Despite the coronacrisis and the sharp fall in the price of oil, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has continued to accumulate cash in its hard currency reserves over the last few years.
ING analysts warn of L-shaped recession in Bulgaria
Lacklustre retail and industrial production data for June indicate that retail turnover has remained relatively flat, while there was only a modest month-on-month improvement in industrial production.
"No matter how we look at it, sales dynamics resemble an L,” commented ING analysts. “Now, with the number of [coronavirus] COVID-19 infections on the rise again and anti-corruption protests still ongoing, the chances for a rebound in consumer morale are rather bleak.”
Turkish manufacturing saw sharp expansion in output and new orders July PMI data shows
The July purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey data for the Turkish manufacturing sector saw sharp rates of expansion in both output and new orders, with capacity pressures emerging and firms taking on ad- ditional staff, compiler IHS Markit said on August 4.
The headline Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing PMI posted 56.9 in July, up from 53.9 in June and the highest since February 2011. Any figure above 50.0 denotes expansion.
Andrew Harker, economics director at IHS Markit, said: “The PMI data at the start of the second half of the year provides optimism that the recovery from the [coronavirus] COVID-19 downturn is solidifying. Sharp expansions in output and new orders were recorded as business conditions gradually return to normal, with even signs of capacity pressures emerging in the sector.
Retail sales and consumer confidence slump in June
Historical overview
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