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production target to 5mn bpd (vs. 2.91mn bpd today) by 2027. The UAE has reportedly threatened to leave OPEC+ before. Policymakers there appear to be taking a pragmatic line as global peak oil demand nears.
The UAE authorities appear to be trying to get ahead of the curve and raise output in order to ensure that their natural resources are not left stranded. But, as things stand, this policy leaves the UAE at loggerheads with other key OPEC+ members, notably Saudi. For now, UAE officials have agreed to OPEC+ cuts – albeit after securing a higher quota from 2024. The risk is that tensions boil over and the UAE once again threatens to leave the group.
Russia has taken a decision to continue reducing supplies of oil to global markets by 300,000 barrels per day to maintain the stability and balance of oil markets, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters. Made earlier by the end of this year, the decision is revised each month.
"Russia will stick to voluntary reduction of supplies to global markets additionally by 300,000 barrels per day that took force in September and October 2023, by the end of December 2023," he said.
"The market will be analyszed next month for taking a decision on deepening the reduction or increasing oil production [supplies]. This comes as an addition to the voluntary reduction announced earlier by Russia in April 2023 that will last until the end of December 2024," Deputy PM added.
Novak said in September that Russia had decided to extend an additional voluntary reduction in oil supplies by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of this year.
OPEC expects Russia's oil and gas condensate production to shrink to 10.1mn barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, the organization said in an annual report World Oil Outlook (WOO) on October 9. The output is to stand at 10.4mn bpd in 2023 and 2024 after 11mn bpd in 2022, OPEC said. Russia is to raise liquid hydrocarbon production again in the mid-2030s with a decline to 10.5mn bpd by 2045. OPEC's oil production may rise to 46.1mn bpd in 2045 from 34.2mn bpd in 2022. Global output may grow by 16mn bpd from 2022 to 116mn bpd by 2045. OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 10.6mn bpd from the 2022 level to 110.2mn bpd by 2028 and to reach 116mn bpd by 2045.
● Prices
Starting October 1, the government will again provide
so-called “damper”
payments to oil companies in full in order to calm the situation on the
domestic fuel market. These payments, which compensate oil companies for
selling oil on the domestic market for lower prices, were effectively cut in half in
September. Their reinstatement will earn oil companies an estimated 400-500
115 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com