Page 130 - RusRPTNov23

likely retain first place in the world in terms of wheat exports." According to Putin, grain exports from Russia in 2023 are expected to be at least 50-60mn tonnes and the country will be able to satisfy all the food needs of its CIS partners. "Our grain exports, like last year, will reach at least 50-60mn tonnes," he said.
He noted that last year the trade turnover between Russia and the CIS countries increased by 6% and reached $102bn.
Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR raised its forecasts at the start of October for Russia’s grain crop this year to 141.2mn metric tonnes from 140.0mn and lifted its estimate for Russian grain exports to 64.5mn tonnes in the 2023/24 season from 64.0mn.
IKAR also said Russian wheat export prices continued to decline in the first week of October, with 12.5%-protein wheat for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in early November down $5 to $230 a ton.
But analysts say Russian wheat exports in October will fall considerably due to weak demand from major importers and informal government restrictions.
The Sovecon agriculture consultancy estimated Russian wheat exports in October at 3.9-4.4mn tonnes, down from 5mn in September and 4.5mn in October last year.
IKAR meanwhile forecast wheat exports in October at 4.5mn tonnes, down from 5.4mn last month and 4.7mn in October 2022.
Better wheat production prospects boosted the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization’s latest forecast for global cereal production to 2.819bn tonnes. Wheat production was revised upward by 3.7mn tonnes in September to 785mn tonnes. The increase was almost entirely based on more positive yield results from Russia and Ukraine compared to earlier expectations, the FAO said. This offsets a steep cut to Canada’s wheat output forecast due to extensive dry weather in key producing areas. Wheat production forecasts for Argentina and Kazakhstan also were scaled back as prolonged dry and hot weather has degraded crop conditions. The FAO’s latest forecast for global coarse grains production for 2023 has remained virtually unchanged at 1.511mn tonnes; however, it represents a 2.7% (39.2mn tonnes) increase from the previous year.
130 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com