Page 43 - RusRPTNov23

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded Russia’s economic growth outlook for 2023 but downgraded them for 2024, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report. (chart)
The IMF expects Russia’s GDP growth at 2.2% in 2023 and at 1.1% in 2024. The IMF’s outlook for this year has been revised upward by 0.7 percentage points from July and by 1.5 percentage points from April, according to the report.
"The rise in growth reflects a substantial fiscal stimulus, strong investment, and resilient consumption in the context of a tight labour market," the report said.
Meanwhile Russia’s GDP growth outlook for 2024 has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points compared with expectations in July and April.
The IMF also projects inflation in Russia at 5.3% in 2023, down from 13.8% in 2022, while in 2024 the Fund expects inflation to grow again to 6.3%.
At the start of 2023 the IMF Russia’s economy would grow by only 0.7% and 1.3% in 2024.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Industrial production rose in September, led by manufacturing sectors.
According to Rosstat, industrial production growth in September accelerated to 5.6% y/y (+3.3% in 9M23); for the month, seasonally adjusted growth amounted to +0.3% m/m (after a similar decline in August ). As in the previous six months, the main contribution to production growth was made by the processing sector (+10.9% y/y in September), while the decline in production continued (-0.7% y/y). Compared to August, seasonally adjusted, the processing sector continued to grow; according to our estimates (+1.5% m/m), the mining sector remained at the level of the previous month. Data on industrial production dynamics confirm previously published Bank of Russia survey indicators, which indicated an acceleration in business activity growth in September.
Russia Industrial production rose 5.4% y/y in Aug 2023, following an increase of 4.9% y/y in the previous month. Russia Industrial production index growth rate y/y data is updated monthly, available from Jan 2014 to Aug 2023, with an average rate of 2.7%.
43 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com