Page 8 - RusRPTNov23

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) monthly macroeconomic survey that polls economists and analysts from major investment firms has revealed a further deterioration in their forecasts for Russia’s key economic indicators in 2023. These projections suggest that economic challenges will persist, with little respite on the horizon.
According to the economists' collective insights, the US dollar is anticipated to remain within the range of 94 to 98 rubles over the next three years. Additionally, year-end inflation for 2023 is expected to reach 7%, and the Central Bank's key rate is projected to climb to 15% by year-end. analysts also foresee that labour market tensions will persist through at least 2026.
Furthermore, the forecast for the ruble's exchange rate has also deteriorated. The average forecast for 2023 suggests an exchange rate of 96 rubles per US dollar for October-December (currently at 97). In 2024, analysts expect the rate to be 94 rubles per dollar (compared to the previous forecast of 89.9), 97.5 in 2025 (previously 90.8), and 98.2 in 2026 (previously 92).
The war in Ukraine grinds on with neither side gaining any significant territory. However, the arrive of new long range missiles means that Russia is losing the battle for the Black Sea and has been forced to withdraw its navy from its home post and move it to Georgia. That has allowed Ukraine to reopen a temporary grain export corridor with limited capacity; while grain production is up year-on-year, grain export in this marketing season is down by a third as of the end of September.
Russia continues to fight a largely defensive war, while Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is on the offense, but at the cost of high casualties. However, as Putin has now put Russia’s economy on a full war footing the plan seems to be to keep the pressure on Ukraine for another year and wait for the US elections which could deliver Donald Trump back to the White House. No ceasefire talks are expected before November next year as a result.
8 RUSSIA Country Report November 2023 www.intellinews.com