Page 39 - UKRRptJan21

disbursement of an EU loan for €600mn. We estimate state and state-guaranteed debt to reach $87.5bn, or 61.5% of GDP.”
Ukraine faces a second year of high foreign debt payments in 2021-- $16.1bn.​ This is almost double the payments expected for 2022 - $8.6bn - and $8.9bn in 2023, the Finance Ministry reported on Facebook. In 2020, through November, Ukraine has paid $16.9bn for public debt principal and interest. For 2021, Ukraine will have to pay $10.9bn domestic debt principal and interest. The country will have to pay $5.2bn in foreign debt principal and interest
7.0​ FX
Ukraine FX
Jan 2020
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
Apr 2020
May 2020
Jun 2020
Jul 2020
Aug 2020
Sept 2020
Oct 2020
Nov 2020
Dec 2020
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
26.78
26.84
29.34
29.54
29.16
30.03
31.32
32.55
33.03
33.35
33.53
34.29
Currency (units per USD) (average)
24.12
24.58
26.52
27.18
26.77
26.79
27.33
27.52
28.02
28.33
28.31
28.17
The forecast average exchange rate for 2021: 29.1 hryvnia / dollar – from 27.8 in December 2020.
Ukraine’s hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021, thanks to foreign-currency inflows from exports and renewed interest by foreign investors in Ukrainian local bonds, a Reuters monthly poll of 13 analysts indicated in Jsnuary. Last year, foreign investors cut their bond portfolio by almost $2bn, or 42%. In the second half of December, foreign investors reversed, buying $368mn worth of bonds. This year, forecasts of continued strong prices for metals and grains coupled with resumed IMF lending make for a median June exchange rate forecast of UAH27.60/$1, about 2% stronger than the current level. Last year, the hryvnia lost 17% of its value, largely in March.
To prevent a strengthening of the hryvnia, the central bank bought a net $335.5mn on the interbank market in December. ​By contrast, during the whole year, the bank bought a net $1.1bn, reports the National Bank of Ukraine. The Bank intervenes to prevent exchange rate volatility. The 2021 budget is predicated on an average exchange rate of UAH29.1 per dollar, a 3% devaluation from today’s rate of 28.27.
Foreign investors re-entered the government bond market in the last week of December ​supporting the hryvnia, which strengthened. The dollar bought UAH28 in the last week of December, a rate little changed in nine months. ICU wrote: “Foreigners' activity in the bond market continued to support hryvnia exchange rate. Due to a large supply of hard currency, the hryvnia appreciated during most of last week...Recovery in foreigners' demand for local-currency debt increased the supply of hard currency, and the [central bank] responded by purchasing hard currency into reserves. In total, the NBU
39​ UKRAINE Country Report​ January 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com